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Events

CEMAP Seminar: Guest speaker Dr. Paulo Santos Monteiro (University of York)

Wednesday, 6 February 2019
13:00 to 14:00
Dr. Paulo Santos Monteiro (University of York)
Durham University Business School MHL 223

CENTRE FOR MACROECONOMIC POLICY (CEMAP)

Title: The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in General Equilibrium (with Nikos Kokonas)

Abstract:

We develop a general equilibrium business cycle model, with endogenous participation and job separations resulting from both quits and layoffs. To close the model we impose a vector autoregression representation for the job finding and separation rates that introduce plausible joint dynamics for the Ins and Outs of unemployment. An estimated version of the model is successful at explaining the business cycle in the labour market. In particular, an acyclical job separation rate masks the substantial volatility of quits and layoffs over the business cycle required to match gross worker flows. Fluctuations in the job finding rate are the predominant business cycle propagation channel, albeit productivity and investment-specific shocks contribute

only modestly to its volatility. Shocks to the job separation rate are an important source of unemployment volatility, but they are in large part transmitted through a reduction in the job finding rate.

This Seminar is organised by CEMAP:

CEMAP Seminar: Guest speaker Dr. Paulo Santos Monteiro (University of York)

Wednesday, 6 February 2019
13:00 to 14:00
Dr. Paulo Santos Monteiro (University of York)
Durham University Business School MHL 223

CENTRE FOR MACROECONOMIC POLICY (CEMAP)

Title: The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in General Equilibrium (with Nikos Kokonas)

Abstract:

We develop a general equilibrium business cycle model, with endogenous participation and job separations resulting from both quits and layoffs. To close the model we impose a vector autoregression representation for the job finding and separation rates that introduce plausible joint dynamics for the Ins and Outs of unemployment. An estimated version of the model is successful at explaining the business cycle in the labour market. In particular, an acyclical job separation rate masks the substantial volatility of quits and layoffs over the business cycle required to match gross worker flows. Fluctuations in the job finding rate are the predominant business cycle propagation channel, albeit productivity and investment-specific shocks contribute

only modestly to its volatility. Shocks to the job separation rate are an important source of unemployment volatility, but they are in large part transmitted through a reduction in the job finding rate.

This Seminar is organised by CEMAP: