A mini macroeconomics conference
A mini macroeconomics conference by the Centre For Economic Growth and Policy (CEGAP) will take place on 24 April 2018.
Confirmed speakers are:
Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics
Topic: 'Central Bank Swap Lines'
Swap lines between advanced-economy central banks appeared in response to the financial crisis, and are still a commonly used monetary policy tool today. This paper provides a first analysis of their role and effects. After characterizing their properties, we establish four results about the swap lines: they mimic discount window credit for foreign banks with the foreign central bank bearing the credit risk, they put a ceiling on deviations from covered interest parity, they reduce the ex post funding risk facing foreign banks, and they ex ante encourage inflows from foreign banks into domestic asset markets. Using difference-in-differences empirical strategies that exploit the fact that only some countries had a dollar swap line, only some banks had U.S. funding, and only some U.S. assets had large foreign investors, we find support for these predictions.
Rafael Wouters, National Bank of Belgium
Paper Title: 'Estimation of Operational Macro-models at the Zero Lower Bound (joint paper with Jesper Lindé and Junior Maih)
We present and apply estimation techniques which can be used to estimate large-scale macro-models with forward-looking expectations at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Using the workhorse models of Smets and Wouters (2007) and the Galí, Smets and Wouters (2011) models, we compare the merits of estimation methods in which the expected duration of the ZLB incident is modelled as endogenous and derived from the policy rule forecast with Regime-Switching methods in which the expected ZLB duration is constant. Using the estimated models, we discuss the extent to which imposing the ZLB impacts filtered shocks, impulse response functions, and forecasts during the crisis. Finally, we use the estimated models and shocks to assess the aggregate costs of the ZLB incidence in the United States.
Location: Durham University Business School, MHL 452
Economic Growth and Policy Conference 2018
The annual Economic Growth and Policy Conference will take place 19 - 20 May 2018. The keynote speaker is Martin Uribe from Columbia University, USA.
Confirmed speakers are:
- Martin Uribe (Columbia University),
- Kevin Lansing ( Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), 'Real Business Cycles, Animal Spirits and Equity Prices'
- Evi Pappa (European University), 'Senitmental Business Cycles'
- Mauro Bambi (York University), 'Procyclical Endogenous Taxation and Aggregate Instability'
- Christoph Thoenissen (Sheffield University), 'Migration and Business Cycle Dynamics'
- Paul Levine (Surrey University), 'The Relationship between VAR and DSGE Models when Agents have Limited Information'
- Thijs Van Reis (Warwick University), 'The vanishing procyclicity of labour productivity'
- Richard Harrison (Bank of England), 'Optimal Quantitative Easing'
- George Bratsiotis (University of Manchester), 'Credit Risk, Excess Reserve and Monetary Policy: The Deposit Channel'
Location: Durham University Business School, MHL 405
Economic Growth and Policy Conference 2017
Frontier Issues in Macroeconomics
13-14 May 2017, MHL 405, Durham University Business School from 1.00 pm
- Gianluca Benigno (LSE): Stagnation traps
- Andrea Ferrero (Oxford): Concerted efforts? Monetary and macro-prudential policies (joint paper with Richard Harrison and Benjamin Nelson, Bank of England)
- Sayantan Ghosal (Glasgow): Rationalizable Expectations Equilibria
- Campbell Leith (Glasgow): Optimal time-consistent monetary, fiscal and debt maturity policy (co-authored with Eric Leeper and Ding Liu)
- Riccardo Masolo (Bank of England): Ambiguity, monetary policy and trend inflation (joint with Francesca Monti)
- Roberto Pancrazi (Warwick): Non-Exclusivity Externality in Sovereign Bond Markets and Debt Dilution (joint with Luca Zavalloni)
- Thomas Sampson (LSE): The global productivity distribution and Ricardian comparative advantage
- Roman Sustek (Queen Mary): Nominal rigidities in debt and product markets
- Akos Valentinyi (Manchester): Unbalanced growth slowdown
Economic Growth and Policy Conference 2016
CEGAP's annual conference was held on 14-15 May 2016 at Durham University Business School.
Keynote speaker Professor Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Princeton): "Monetary and Financial Policies in Emerging Markets"
Watch keynote address
Alfred Duncan (Cambridge): "Financial Macroeconomics with Complete Business Cycle Risk Markets" (joint with Charles Nolan (Glasgow))
Roberto Billi (Sveriges Riksbank): "Price Level Targeting and Risk Management"
Oren Sussman (Oxford): "A welfare analysis of fragmented liquidity markets"
Sayantan Ghosal (Glasgow): "Staggered debt swaps for distressed sovereigns: fair but fragile?"
Tsvetelina Nenova (Bank of England): "The shocks matter: improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through"
Watch this presentation
Christoph Thoenissen (Sheffield): "Exchange rates and news-driven business cycles in small open economies"
Max Gillman (University of Missouri St Louis): "Tuning in RBC growth spectra"
Clive Bell (Heidelberg): “Untimely destruction: epidemics, war and accumulation in the long run”
Roman Sustek (Queen Mary): "On the Mechanics of New-Keynesian Models"
Guido Ascari (Oxford): "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: Leeper (1991) Redux"
Economic Growth and Policy Conference 2015
CEGAP's annual conference was held on 16-17 May 2015 at Durham University Business School. The theme of the conference was Growth or Slump after the Crisis?
Keynote speaker: Costas Azariadis, Washington University, St Louis and Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis: 'Self-fulfilling Credit Cycles'
- Niloy Bose, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee: ‘Explaining the Effect of Financial Development on the Quality of Property Rights’
- Chetan Ghate, Indian Statistical Institute: 'Factor Income Taxation, Growth, and Investment Specific Technological Change'
- Sayantan Ghosal, Glasgow University: ‘Expectations coordination in large games and markets’
- Max Gillman, University of Missouri, St Louis: 'US Monetary Policy Cointegration with Endogenous Markov-Switching VECM Regimes'
- Sanjay Banerji, University of Nottingham: 'Debt equity swap and restructuring of sovereign debt under incentives and austerities’
- Stephen Millard, Bank of England: ‘Oil shocks and the UK economy: the changing nature of shocks and impact over time’
- Patrick Minford, Cardiff University: 'Monetarism rides again? US monetary policy in a world of quantitative easing'
- Charles Nolan, Glasgow University: ‘How important are insurance markets for common shocks’
- Arnab Bhattacherjee, Heriot-Watt: ‘Cross Country Convergence in a General Lotka-Volterra Model’
- Christoph Thoenissen, Sheffield University: ‘Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies’
Growth and Policy Conference, 16-17 March 2013
- Gonzalo Forgues-Puccio, St Andrews: Does size matter? Scale, corruption and uncertainty
- Sayantan Ghosal, Warwick: Poverty and aspiration failure.
- Sugata Ghosh, Brunel: On the role of democracy in the ethnicity-growth relationship: theory and evidence
- Max Gillman, Cardiff: Real business cycle, human capital and endogenous growth
- Douglas Gollin, Oxford: Urbanization with and without structural transformation
- Stephen Millard, Bank of England: The effect of the financial crisis on TFP growth: a general equilibrium approach
- Charles Nolan, Glasgow: Universal banking, competition and risk in a macro model
- B Ravikumar, Federal Reserve Bank, St Louis: Capital goods trade and economic development.
- Thomas Renstrom, Durham: Population Growth and Technological Change: a Pure Welfarist Approach
- Dimitrios Varvarigos, Leicester: Endogenous Market Structure, Occupational Choice, and Growth Cycles
- Tiangxi Wang, Essex: Lend out what you do not have yet: a model of banking and (unconventional) central banking
Growth and Business Cycles Conference, 12-13 March 2011
- Nobu Kiyotaki (LSE, Princeton): Financial Crises, Bank Risk Exposure and Government Financial Policy | Accompanying slides
- Pierre-Richard Agenor (Manchester): Public Capital, Health Persistence and Poverty Traps
- Patrick Minford (Cardiff): Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics
- Paul Levine (Surrey): CES Technology and Business Cycle Fluctuations
- Sumru Altug (Koç): Business cycles around the globe: a regime-switching approach
- Max Gillman (Cardiff): A simple theory of structural transformation
Growth-Innovation Conference, 5-6 December 2009
- Karl Shell: Could Making Banks Hold Only Liquid Assets Induce Bank Runs? | Video | Accompanying slides
- Omer Moav: Saving Rates and Poverty: The Role of Conspicuous Consumption and Human Capital | Video
- Sayantan Ghosal: Commercialisation, Factor Prices and Technological Progress in the Transition to Modern Economic Growth: History and Theory | Video
- Max Gillman: Monetary Effects on Nominal Oil Prices | Video
- Guido Cozzi: Upstream Innovation Protection: Common Law Evolution and the Dynamics of Wage Inequality | Video
- Sumru Altug: Interest Rate Shocks, Labor Market Search and Emerging Market Business Cycles | Video
- Keith Blackburn: Corruption and Development: Explaining the Evidence | Video
- Mauro Bambi: Endogenous growth and endogenous fluctuations in external habit formation models | Video
- Sai Ding: Why has China Grown so Fast? The Role of Structural Change | Video
- Christian Ghiglino: Patent Citation Patterns Without Preferential Attachment | Video