Impactful Research

Modelling the Impact of Future Trade Agreements on the United Kingdom’s Economy

Anamaria Nicolae, together with  Michael Nower,  led the Impact Case Study that was submitted by the Business School to REF2021. Their research has had significant impact on Bank of England analysis and parliamentary scrutiny of Government activity and policy, as well as having impacted on the business community, regarding the implications of various Brexit related trade scenarios for the United Kingdom’s economy. Specifically, the research has: (1) provided a bespoke macroeconomic model that was used in the Bank of England’s ‘EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability: A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee’ report, November 2018, offering unique insights into the effects of various No-Deal/no-transition scenarios on the short-run dynamic pattern of GDP, which informed and influenced monetary policy making; (2) impacted the voting decisions of MPs in their votes on the “indicative vote on No Deal” and “Benn Bill” in the House of Commons, as well as influencing the work of the International Trade Select Committee and other parliamentary bodies on a number of Brexit and trade-related publications; (3) informed local MEP and business organisations on possible trade agreements.

Robust Random Utility Models

The research of Riccardo Scarpa is mostly based on the estimation of robust random utility models based on discrete choice data, revealed or stated, and the effectiveness of advanced experimental designs. Applications have spanned various fields and explored attributes of choice alternatives, such as therapies by patients (1, 2, 3), job preferences by junior doctors, environmental disclosures of listed firms by shareholders, nutritional labels by food consumers (1, 2), land use by farmers, high schools preferences by parents, electricity contracts by households, and livestock market facilities by shepherds in LDCs. Other studies looked at determinants of membership of international environmental agreements (1, 2), and recreationists' demand for outdoor recreation (1,2), diversity of preference within couples and real vs stated choice, effectiveness of nudging in milk and wine choice  and discrete-continuous models consistent with random utility.

Empirical findings of his studies inform various dimensions of environmental sustainability in food choice, electricity sources, patient care and the willingness to pay (WTP) for non-market goods. They also provide guidance to practitioners about how to obtain robust WTP estimates, test WTP differences, and improve experimental design of treatments.

FADE-IN: A Framework for Assisting Developing Economies in Implementing NDCs

Habib Rahman, together with Michael Naef, led the FADE-IN project, which developed a comprehensive framework to support 24 developing countries across Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and the Pacific in implementing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Delivered in partnership with Curtin University and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (Thailand), and supported by the Australian Government, the project was based on a series of country-level and regional consultations. It identified critical gaps in climate finance, institutional capacity, and technology needs.

FADE-IN has provided strategic guidance to developed countries (specifically Annex II nations under the UNFCCC) on how to effectively direct support in areas such as capacity building, climate financing, technology transfer, and institutional development. As an immediate impact, the initiative has strengthened international cooperation and directly informed Australia’s climate diplomacy—including the delivery of capacity-building trainings on carbon market mechanisms in Viet Nam and the design of innovative climate finance tools in Africa, targeted at high- and mid-level government officials.

Laura Marsiliani, together with Ashar Aftab and Habib Rahman, participate in the interdisciplinary JusTN0W initiative spearheaded by Durham University Strategic Research Fund. Strand 3 of the project is led by the Economics Department and developed in collaboration with other disciplines at Durham University and external partners. It will provide workable environmental, economic, and business scenarios to simulate carbon control policies and mechanisms and ascertain their costs and benefits.

Objectives include to:

1. Develop novel environmental, economic and business models and scenarios consistent with legal compliance criteria to be incorporated in digital-twin infrastructures to derive best-fitting parameters values under uncertainty.
2. Embed market instruments (e.g., carbon trading) under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement in the models and scenarios above and simulate their impact to ascertain costs and benefits for markets, stakeholders (e.g. investors, low-income households and other groups affected by transition) and the environment arising from the implementation of these instruments. We will focus on specific countries/regions, instruments and embed legal and environmental constraints (e.g., icesheets integrity, soil health, 1.5°C warming above pre-industrial level).
3. Provide policy recommendations (optimal instruments and their effects) for selected countries and industries.
4. Contribute to capacity Building and Knowledge Transfer and dialogue for just transitions pathways.