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School of Government & International Affairs

Staff Profile

Publication details for Dr Nick Vivyan

Hanretty, Chris, Lauderdale, Benjamin E. & Vivyan, Nick (2016). Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting. Electoral Studies 41: 239-243.

Author(s) from Durham


We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.