Research lectures, seminars and events
The events listed in this area are research seminars, workshops and lectures hosted by Durham University departments and research institutes. If you are not a member of the University, but wish to enquire about attending one of the events please contact the organiser or host department.
|September 2018||November 2018|
Events for 22 October 2018
The evaluation of probabilistic forecasts plays a central role both in the interpretation and in the use of forecast systems and their development. Probabilistic scores provide statistical measures to assess the quality of probabilistic forecasts. Often, many probabilistic forecast systems are available while evaluations of their performance are not standardized, with different scores being used to measure different aspects of forecast performance. Even when the discussion is restricted to strictly proper scores, there remains considerable variability between scores; indeed strictly proper scores need not rank competing forecast systems in the same order when none of these systems are perfect. The locality property is explored to further distinguish skill scores. The only local strictly proper score, the logarithmic score, has an immediate interpretation in terms of bits of information. The interpretation of nonlocal strictly proper scores, on the other hand, relies on information regarding the unknown (if it even exists) True underlying distribution. The nonlocal strictly proper scores considered are shown to have properties that can produce "unfortunate" evaluations. It is therefore suggested that the logarithmic score always be included in the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts.
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IAS Fellows' Seminar - How can we support children with autism spectrum disorders who are learning to read?
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There is a very suggestive analogy between the Kontsevich-Soibelman wall-crossing formula for Donaldson-Thomas invariants, and the notion of an iso-Stokes deformation in the theory of differential equations. I will try to explain this analogy in elementary terms assuming no previous knowledge of either of these topics. I'll start by talking about how the Stokes matrices of a differential equation are defined in a simple example, then switch to quiver representations and talk about Donaldson-Thomas invariants and the wall-crossing formula. If there's time at the end (which there probably won't be) I'll talk a bit about some of the recent research which this analogy has inspired.
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