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Durham University

Department of Mathematical Sciences

Academic Staff

Publication details for Peter Craig

Benford, Diane, Halldorsson, Thorhallur, Jeger, Michael John, Knutsen, Helle Katrine, More, Simon, Naegeli, Hanspeter, Noteborn, Hubert, Ockleford, Colin, Ricci, Antonia, Rychen, Guido, Schlatter, Josef R, Silano, Vittorio, Solecki, Roland, Turck, Dominique, Younes, Maged, Craig, Peter, Hart, Andrew, Von Goetz, Natalie, Koutsoumanis, Kostas, Mortensen, Alicja, Ossendorp, Bernadette, Martino, Laura, Merten, Caroline, Mosbach‐Schulz, Olaf & Hardy, Anthony (2018). Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments. EFSA Journal 16(1): e05123.

Author(s) from Durham


Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific conclusions. It is therefore relevant in all EFSA's scientific assessments and also necessary, to ensure that the assessment conclusions provide reliable information for decision-making. The form and extent of uncertainty analysis, and how the conclusions should be reported, vary widely depending on the nature and context of each assessment and the degree of uncertainty that is present. This document provides concise guidance on how to identify which options for uncertainty analysis are appropriate in each assessment, and how to apply them. It is accompanied by a separate, supporting opinion that explains the key concepts and principles behind this Guidance, and describes the methods in more detail.