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Department of Mathematical Sciences

Academic Staff

Publication details for Jochen Einbeck

Sofroniou, Nick, Einbeck, Jochen & Hinde, John (2006), Analyzing Irish suicide rates with mixture models, in Hinde, John, Einbeck, Jochen & Newell, John eds, Proceedings of the IWSM 21th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling. Galway, Ireland, National University of Ireland, Galway, 474-481.

Author(s) from Durham


In the analysis of morbidity and mortality data,
variance component models are commonly used to provide an
improvement in the estimation of rates for small regions which
typically show large variability. This article investigates Irish
suicide data using Poisson mixed models. The random effect
distributions are estimated using Nonparametric Maximum likelihood
which allows the calculation of shrinkage estimates from the
posterior probability estimates of the EM algorithm, as well as
the construction of `league tables'. As these models are
inefficient in the case of spatial dependency, we investigate the
addition of spatial autocorrelation terms based on neighboring
average crude rates and standardized mortality ratios, as well as
gender-specific versions of these. We consider models for the
average crude rate as well as for the relative risk. A close
correspondence between fitted values from both types of models
suggests that information concerning within-region variability,
incorporated in the parameters of the average crude rate model,
appears indirectly in the simpler relative risk model by means of
the expected values used in the offset term of the latter.