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Department of Mathematical Sciences

Academic Staff

Publication details for Jochen Einbeck

Einbeck, J., Gray, E., Sofroniou, N., Marques da Silva Junior, A. H. & Gledhill, J. (2017), Con fidence intervals for posterior intercepts, with application to the PIAAC literacy survey, in Grzegorczyk, M. & Ceoldo, G. eds, 1: International Workshop on Statistical Modelling. Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, 217-222.

Author(s) from Durham


For variance component models, it is often the posterior estimate of
the random effect (‘posterior intercept’) rather than the estimate of the fixed
effect parameters, which is of main interest. This is the case, for instance, when
ranking region–wise mortality rates (where the crude, regional rates are unreliable
due to small observed counts) or for the construction of educational league tables
from complex sample surveys. However, in order to be able to decide whether
two cluster–level units can actually be distinguished, it is clear that one needs a
measure of variability of these posterior intercepts. We present an exploration
of methods to address this issue which appears to be still undeveloped in the
context of the model class considered.