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Durham University

Department of Mathematical Sciences


Publication details for Matthias Troffaes

Paton, Lewis, Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Boatman, Nigel, Hussein, Mohamud & Hart, Andy (2015), A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations, in Augustin, T. , Doria, S. , Miranda, E. & Quaeghebeur, E. eds, ISIPTA 2015. Pescara, Italy, SIPTA, Pescara, 217-226.

Author(s) from Durham


We analyse the impact of a policy decision on crop rotations, using the imprecise land use model that was developed by the authors in earlier work. A specific challenge in crop rotation models is that farmer’s
crop choices are driven by both policy changes and external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature
and agricultural input and output prices. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary stochastic process, where crop transition probabilities are multinomial logistic functions of such external factors.
We use a robust Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of our model, and validate it by comparing the model response with a non-parametric estimate, as well as by cross validation. Finally, we use the resulting predictions to solve a hypothetical yet realistic policy problem.


20-24 July 2015