Cookies

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. You can change your cookie settings at any time. Otherwise, we'll assume you're OK to continue.

Durham University

Department of Mathematical Sciences

Staff

Publication details for Matthias Troffaes

Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2017), A note on imprecise Monte Carlo over credal sets via importance sampling, in Antonucci, Alessandro, Corani, Giorgio, Couso, Inés & Destercke, Sébastien eds, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 62: The Tenth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA ’17). Lugano, Switzerland, PMLR, 325-332.

Author(s) from Durham

Other versions of this publication

Abstract

This brief paper is an exploratory investigation of how we can apply sensitivity analysis over importance sampling weights in order to obtain sampling estimates of lower previsions described by a parametric family of distributions. We demonstrate our results on the imprecise Dirichlet model, where we can compare with the analytically exact solution. We discuss the computational limitations of the approach, and propose a simple iterative importance sampling method in order to overcome these limitations. We find that the proposed method works pretty well, at least in the example studied, and we discuss some further possible extensions.