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Department of Mathematical Sciences

Seminar Archives

On this page you can find information about seminars in this and previous academic years, where available on the database.

Statistics Seminars: Stochastic multitype SIR epidemics in a community of households

Presented by Owen Lyne,

3 December 2004 14:00 in CM221

"This talk is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SIR (susceptible -> infected -> removed) epidemic among a closed, finite population partitioned into households that contain several classes of individual. Individuals are classified, for example, into age groups and/or by vaccination status. This model permits heterogeneity of infection rates for between-household and within-household infections, as well as the heterogeneity of rates between the classes of individual.
The threshold behaviour of the model is briefly outlined and methods for making statistical inferences about the parameters governing such epidemics from final outcome data are described. The asymptotic properties of these procedures, as the number of households becomes large, can then be determined. The talk will then focus on an example of conducting such inference."

University of Kent

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