Tipping Points in Modelling Seminar Series : Robust common-cause failure modelling in power networks with non-immediate repair
12 March 2015 13:00 in
Power networks are commonly modelled using continuous time Markov chains. Although they are analytically attractive, in practice, the assumptions underlying these models are not necessarily representative of real power networks observed in practice. Moreover, the parameters of the model can be hard to estimate from data. In this talk, we present a model based on so-called imprecise continuous time Markov chains, in which we relax the assumption of transition rates being precise and constant, instead allowing the rates to vary between bounds in a time-inhomogeneous way. For estimation of these bounds, we use a generalisation of the standard alpha-factor model for common cause failures that can deal with asymmetry, in order to apply the model to power networks, which are typically asymmetric. We show how practical bounds on the probability of various failure events can be calculated. Finally, we demonstrate our methodology on a simple yet realistic example.
Lunch will be provided from 12h30, please sign-up by contacting Camila Caiado.
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