26 November 2014 13:00 in CM105
Farmers often follow set patterns of crop choices in order to maximise profits and preserve nutrients in the soil. However, these crop choices are dependant on a variety of factors, including the climate and the economy. Modelling and predicting these crop rotations is an important task in order to analyse the effect changes in climate or the economy may have on agricultural output. One major difficulty in crop rotation modelling is the shortage of observations of some crop types. A robust Bayesian approach allows us to handle these rare crop types, by allowing us to obtain intervals of predictions which more accurately represent our knowledge. I will talk about this approach.
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