Statistics Seminars: Eliciting probability distributions and clinical trial design
4 February 2013 14:00 in CM221
In this seminar I will start with a general discussion of eliciting probability distributions from experts, and will demonstrate some software for doing elicitation over the web. I will then discuss the
use of expert elicitation in clinical trial planning, specifically
within the "assurance" method for choosing sample sizes. The assurance
method is an alternative to a power calculation, in which we assess the probability of a successful clinical trial, based on prior beliefs about the efficacy of the drug. I will consider clinical trials involving the analysis of survival data, and discuss how to construct the necessary prior distributions.
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