Statistics Seminars: Fuzzy Probabilities for Engineering Applications
10 October 2011 14:00 in CM221
A key issue in computational engineering disciplines is the realistic numerical modeling of physical and mechanical phenomena and processes. This is the basis to derive predictions regarding behavior, performance, and reliability of engineering structures and systems. In engineering practice, however, the available information is frequently quite limited and of poor quality. These problematic characteristics of the available information impede the precise specification of numerical models without an artificial introduction of unwarranted information. An appropriate mathematical modeling is required in accordance with the underlying real-world information. Shortcomings, in this regard, may lead to biased computational results with an unrealistic accuracy and, therefore, may lead to wrong decisions with the potential for associated serious consequences. The solution to this conflict is given with imprecise probabilities, which involve both probabilistic uncertainty and non-probabilistic imprecision. An entire set of plausible probabilistic models is considered in one analysis. This leads to more realistic results and helps to prevent wrong decisions. In this context the seminar is focused on fuzzy probabilities and their application in engineering. Usefulness and benefits are demonstrated by means of practical examples.
Michael Beer is Professor of Uncertainty in Engineering in the Centre for Engineering Sustainability, School of Engineering, University of Liverpool. He graduated with a doctoral degree in Civil Engineering from the Technische Universität Dresden, Germany. As a Feodor-Lynen Fellow of the Alexander von Humboldt-Foundation Dr. Beer pursued research at Rice University together with Professor Pol D. Spanos. From 2007 to 2011 he worked as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore. His research is focused on non-traditional uncertainty models in engineering with emphasis on reliability analysis and on robust design. Dr. Beer is a Member of ASME, Charter Member of the ASCE Engineering Mechanics Institute, Member of the European Association for Structural Dynamics, Member of IACM, as well as Member of the Editorial Board of Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics and Computers & Structures.
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