We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. You can change your cookie settings at any time. Otherwise, we'll assume you're OK to continue.

Department of Mathematical Sciences

Seminar Archives

On this page you can find information about seminars in this and previous academic years, where available on the database.

Statistics Seminars: Lecture Day on 'Risk and Reliability Modelling for Energy Systems'

Presented by ,

15 November 2010 09:30 in Senate Suite, Durham Castle

[additional info available at]


* Chris Dent, School of Engineering and Computing Sciences, Durham University (chris.dent[at]
* Frank Coolen, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University (frank.coolen[at]

Full details of Durham University's energy research may be found on the Durham Energy Institute pages.


* 0930 Arrival: tea, coffee and pastries
* 1000 Start of event
* 1700 Finish

Invited speakers

John Andrews, Professor of Infrastructure Asset Management, Nottingham University:

* Advanced system reliability assessment methods, and applications in the aerospace industry
* Systems reliability assessment methods have been developed to solve practical design and operation problems experienced in any industry. However, advances made in the capability of these methods in terms of their accuracy, efficiency and speed open up the possibility of applying them to solve problems which would not previously have been possible. Applications such as their use in determining the optimal design and operation of complex systems where large numbers of system designs need to be investigated is possible. It is also possible to use the reliability prediction methods for part of the decision making on systems operation (when carrying failures) rather than just a means to demonstrate that the system, as designed, is capable of acceptable performance on average. Examples of such applications in the aerospace industry will be given. The techniques are generic and can be applied with similar effect in other industries such as the energy industry.
* John Andrews is the Royal Academy of Engineering and Network Rail Professor of Asset Management in the Nottingham Transport Engineering Centre (NTEC) at the University of Nottingham. Prior to this he worked for 20 years at Loughborough University where his final post was Professor of Systems Risk and Reliability.

Erik Ela, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Denver, USA

* Risk modelling in wind power integration studies: Experience from the United States
* This presentation will focus on the modeling efforts being performed in the United States to evaluate the integration impacts of high penetrations of wind power on certain regional systems. Recently, two large integration studies were performed in the United States for major portions of both the eastern and western electrical interconnections. A further study is evaluating impacts of up to 80% renewable generation (50% variable generation) on the entire country. Many other regional studies have been completed in the past ten years. The presentation will discuss the modeling of risk in terms of power system reliability impacts as well as other results that the studies show. It will also emphasize some additional enhancements that are being researched on how power system modeling can be improved on systems with higher penetrations of wind and other variable generation resources.
* Erik Ela received the BSEE degree from Binghamton University and the MS degree in Power Systems at the Illinois Institute of Technology. He joined the NREL grid integration team to work on wind integration issues. His experience lies mostly in topics relating to grid operations and market operations. Erik previously worked for the New York Inependent System Operator developing and improving products in the energy markets and operations areas.

Contact for more information