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Department of Mathematical Sciences

Seminar Archives

On this page you can find information about seminars in this and previous academic years, where available on the database.

Statistics Seminars: Adversarial Risk Analysis: A Smallpox Example

Presented by David Banks, Duke University

29 January 2008 14:15 in CM221

Classical risk analysis has focused on situations whose outcomes are determined entirely by probability. Classical game theory has focused on situations in which the only uncertainty is the action of an intelligent opponent. This talk combines both methodologies and applies them in the context of preparation for a hypothetical bioterrorist attack using smallpox. The talk draws upon experience in the federal government and an upcoming National Academies advisory report to the Department of Homeland Security, and points up the advantages of the Kadane-Larkey Bayesian formulation of game theory, particularly in the context of portfolio analysis.

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