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Department of Archaeology

Staff

Publication details for Dr Robert Witcher

Kay, S.J. & Witcher, R.E. (2010). Predictive Modelling of Roman Settlement in the Middle Tiber Valley. Archeologia e Calcolatori 20(2009): 277-290.
  • Publication type: Journal papers: academic
  • ISSN/ISBN: 1120-6861
  • Keywords: GIS; Predictive modelling; Roman settlement; Tiber valley
  • View online: Online version
  • Durham research online: DRO record

Author(s) from Durham

Abstract

This paper discusses the results of an inductive predictive modelling experiment on Roman settlement data from the middle Tiber valley, Italy. The study forms part of the British School at Rome’s Tiber Valley Project, which since its inception in 1998 has been assessing the changing landscapes of the Tiber Valley from protohistory through to the medieval period. The aim of this present study is to broaden understanding of settlement patterns via predictive modelling, and in particular to evaluate unevenness in field survey coverage, survey bias and past settlement location preferences. The predictive modelling method chosen was an application of the statistical Weights of Evidence extension for ESRI ArcGIS. The results highlight associations between Roman settlement and environmental themes that provide moderate predictive potential and suggest that further experimentation might prove valuable.