Skip to main content

John Paul Gosling

Professor, Statistics

PhD University of Sheffield

AffiliationRoom numberTelephone
Professor, Statistics in the Department of Mathematical SciencesMSC3068+44 (0) 191 33 43058
Fellow in the Durham Research Methods Centre  
Associate Fellow in the Institute of Advanced Study  

Research interests

  • Bayesian statistics
  • Expert knowledge elicitation
  • Robust analyses

Research groups

  • Statistics


Chapter in book

  • Gosling, John Paul (2018). SHELF: the Sheffield elicitation framework. In Elicitation. Springer, Cham. 61-93.

Doctoral Thesis

  • Gosling, John Paul (2005). Elicitation: a nonparametric view. University of Sheffield. PhD.

Journal Article

  • Vernon, I. & Gosling, J.P. (2022). A Bayesian Computer Model Analysis of Robust Bayesian Analyses. Bayesian Analysis 1-33.
  • Holzhauer, Björn, Hampson, Lisa V, Gosling, John Paul, Bornkamp, Björn, Kahn, Joseph, Lange, Markus R, Luo, Wen-Lin, Brindicci, Caterina, Lawrence, David, Ballerstedt, Steffen & others (2022). Eliciting judgements about dependent quantities of interest: The SHeffield ELicitation Framework extension and copula methods illustrated using an asthma case study. Pharmaceutical Statistics 21(5): 1005-1021.
  • Pope, Christopher A, Gosling, John Paul, Barber, Stuart, Johnson, Jill S, Yamaguchi, Takanobu, Feingold, Graham & Blackwell, Paul G (2021). Gaussian process modeling of heterogeneity and discontinuities using Voronoi tessellations. Technometrics 63(1): 53-63.
  • Pina-Sánchez, Jose & Gosling, John Paul (2020). Tackling selection bias in sentencing data analysis: a new approach based on a scale of severity. Quality \& Quantity 54(3): 1047-1073.
  • Punt, Ans, Firman, James, Boobis, Alan, Cronin, Mark, Gosling, John Paul, Wilks, Martin F, Hepburn, Paul A, Thiel, Anette & Fussell, Karma C (2020). Potential of ToxCast data in the safety assessment of food chemicals. Toxicological Sciences 174(2): 326-340.
  • Wittwehr, Clemens, Blomstedt, Paul, Gosling, John Paul, Peltola, Tomi, Raffael, Barbara, Richarz, Andrea-Nicole, Sienkiewicz, Marta, Whaley, Paul, Worth, Andrew & Whelan, Maurice (2020). Artificial Intelligence for chemical risk assessment. Computational Toxicology 13: 100114.
  • Wicks, Kate, Stretton, Clare, Popple, Amy, Beresford, Lorna, Williams, Jason, Maxwell, Gavin, Gosling, John Paul, Kimber, Ian & Dearman, Rebecca J (2019). T lymphocyte phenotype of contact-allergic patients: experience with nickel and p-phenylenediamine. Contact dermatitis 81(1): 43-53.
  • Laing, Kathryn, Thwaites, Peter Adam & Gosling, John Paul (2019). Rank pruning for dominance queries in CP-nets. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 64: 55-107.
  • Manderson, Andrew, Rayson, MD, Cripps, E, Girolami, Mark, Gosling, JP, Hodkiewicz, M, Ivey, GN & Jones, NL (2019). Uncertainty quantification of density and stratification estimates with implications for predicting ocean dynamics. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 36(7): 1313-1330.
  • Astfalck, LC, Cripps, EJ, Gosling, JP & Milne, IA (2019). Emulation of vessel motion simulators for computationally efficient uncertainty quantification. Ocean Engineering 172: 726-736.
  • Pina-Sánchez, Jose, Gosling, John Paul, Chung, Hye-In, Bourgeois, Elizabeth, Geneletti, Sara & Marder, Ian D (2019). Have The England and Wales Guidelines Affected Sentencing Severity? An Empirical Analysis Using a Scale of Severity and Time-Series Analyses. The British Journal of Criminology 59(4): 979-1001.
  • Gosling, John Paul (2019). The importance of mathematical modelling in chemical risk assessment and the associated quantification of uncertainty. Computational toxicology 10: 44-50.
  • Thresher, Andrew, Gosling, John Paul & Williams, Richard (2019). Generation of TD50 values for carcinogenicity study data. Toxicology research 8(5): 696-703.
  • Paini, A, Leonard, JA, Joossens, E, Bessems, JGM, Desalegn, A, Dorne, JL, Gosling, JP, Heringa, MB, Klaric, M, Kliment, T & others (2019). Next generation physiologically based kinetic (NG-PBK) models in support of regulatory decision making. Computational Toxicology 9: 61-72.
  • Astfalck, LC, Cripps, EJ, Gosling, JP, Hodkiewicz, MR & Milne, IA (2018). Expert elicitation of directional metocean parameters. Ocean Engineering 161: 268-276.
  • Dessai, Suraje, Bhave, Ajay, Birch, Cathryn, Conway, Declan, Garcia-Carreras, Luis, Gosling, John Paul, Mittal, Neha & Stainforth, David (2018). Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation. Environmental Research Letters 13(7): 074005.
  • Andrade, JAA & Gosling, JP (2018). Expert knowledge elicitation using item response theory. Journal of Applied Statistics 45(16): 2981-2998.
  • Mistry, Pritesh, Neagu, Daniel, Sanchez-Ruiz, Antonio, Trundle, Paul R, Vessey, Jonathan D & Gosling, John Paul (2017). Prediction of the effect of formulation on the toxicity of chemicals. Toxicology research 6(1): 42-53.
  • Gusnanto, Arief, Gosling, John Paul & Pope, Christopher (2017). Identification of transcript regulatory patterns in cell differentiation. Bioinformatics 33(20): 3235-3242.
  • Paini, Alicia, Joossens, Elisabeth, Bessems, Jos, Desalegn, A, Dorne, Jean-Lou, Gosling, JP, Heringa, MB, Klaric, M, Kramer, N, Loizou, G & others (2017). EURL ECVAM workshop on new generation of physiologically-based kinetic models in risk assessment.
  • Chu, H Hamlet, Chan, Shiao-Wei, Gosling, John Paul, Blanchard, Nicolas, Tsitsiklis, Alexandra, Lythe, Grant, Shastri, Nilabh, Molina-París, Carmen & Robey, Ellen A (2016). Continuous effector CD8+ T cell production in a controlled persistent infection is sustained by a proliferative intermediate population. Immunity 45(1): 159-171.
  • Johnson, JS, Cui, Z, Lee, LA, Gosling, JP, Blyth, AM & Carslaw, KS (2015). Evaluating uncertainty in convective cloud microphysics using statistical emulation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 7(1): 162-187.
  • Tennant, David & Gosling, John Paul (2015). Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats. Food Additives \& Contaminants: Part A 32(9): 1397-1405.
  • Boukouvalas, Alexis, Gosling, John Paul & Maruri-Aguilar, Hugo (2014). An efficient screening method for computer experiments. Technometrics 56(4): 422-431.
  • Gosling, John Paul (2014). Methods for eliciting expert opinion to inform health technology assessment. Vignette Commissioned by the MRC Methodology Advisory Group. Medical Research Council (MRC) and National Institure for Health Research (NIHR)
  • Gosling, John Paul, Hart, Andy, Owen, Helen, Davies, Michael, Li, Jin & MacKay, Cameron (2013). A Bayes Linear approach to weight-of-evidence risk assessment for skin allergy. Bayesian Analysis 8(1): 169-186.
  • Boobis, Alan, Flari, Villie, Gosling, John Paul, Hart, Andy, Craig, Peter, Rushton, Lesley & Idahosa-Taylor, Ehi (2013). Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens-Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures. Food and chemical toxicology 57: 106-118.
  • Truong, Phuong N, Heuvelink, Gerard & Gosling, John Paul (2012). Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram. Computers \& Geosciences 51: 390-99.
  • Gosling, John Paul, Hart, Andy, Mouat, David C, Sabirovic, Mirzet, Scanlan, Simon & Simmons, Alick (2011). Quantifying Experts’ Uncertainty About the Future Cost of Exotic Diseases. Risk Analysis 32: 881-93.
  • Andrade, JAA & Gosling, JP (2011). Predicting rainy seasons: quantifying the beliefs of prophets. Journal of Applied Statistics 38(1): 183-193.
  • Johnson, JS, Gosling, JP & Kennedy, MC (2010). Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulations. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 141: 1838-48.
  • Hart, Andy, Gosling, John Paul, Boobis, Alan, Coggon, David, Craig, Peter & Jones, David (2010). Development of a framework for evaluation and expression of uncertainties in hazard and risk assessment. Final Report of Food Standards Agency Project 1056.
  • Conti, Stefano, Gosling, John Paul, Oakley, JE & O'Hagan, Anthony (2009). Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes. Biometrika 96(3): 663-676.
  • Kennedy, Marc, Anderson, Clive, O'Hagan, Anthony, Lomas, Mark, Woodward, Ian, Gosling, John Paul & Heinemeyer, Andreas (2008). Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 171(1): 109-135.
  • Gosling, John Paul, Oakley, Jeremy E & O’Hagan, Anthony (2007). Nonparametric elicitation for heavy-tailed prior distributions. Bayesian Analysis 2(693-718).