Staff profile

• Bayesian Statistics
• Bayes Linear Methods
• Uncertainty Analysis of Computer Models of Complex Physical Systems
• Galaxy Formation Simulations
• Systems Biology Models
• Epidemiology HIV Models
• Geology models of oil reservoirs

• Statistics

• 2011: Awarded Michell Prize for Best Applied Bayesian Article Worldwide 2010.: The Michell Prize is awarded for the best applied Bayesian Statistics article worldwide, and is considered to be the top research prize for Bayesian Statistics. It is awarded jointly ;by the Section on Bayesian Statistical Science (SBSS) of the America Statistical Association, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA), and the Mitchell Prize Founders' Committee. We were awarded this prize for the invited discussion paper, for which I was first author:

  Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., and Bower, R. G. (2010), “Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis,” Bayesian Analysis 5(4), 619–846, with Discussion.

Chapter in book

• Goldstein, M., Seheult, A. & Vernon, I. (2013). Assessing Model Adequacy. In Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity. Mulligan, Mark. & Wainwright, John. Wiley-Blackwell. 435-449.

Conference Paper

• Carter, J. & Vernon, I. (2022), Gaussian Process Models for Well Placement Optimisation, 2022: ECMOR 2022. The Hague, Netherlands, ECMOR, 1-19.
• Bordas, R., Heritage, J.R., Javed, M.A., Peacock, G., Taha, T., Ward, P., Vernon, I. & Hammersley, R.P. (2020), A Bayesian Optimisation Workflow for Field Development Planning Under Geological Uncertainty, ECMOR XVII. ECMOR, 1-20.
• Formentin, H. Nandi, Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., Caiado, C., Avansi, G. & Schiozer, D. (2020), Accounting for Model Discrepancy in Uncertainty Analysis by Combining Numerical Simulation and Bayesian Emulation Techniques, 2020: ECMOR XVII. ECMOR, 1-27.
• Owen, J., Vernon, I. & Hammersley, R. (2020), A Bayesian Statistical Approach to Decision Support for TNO OLYMPUS Well Control Optimisation under Uncertainty, ECMOR XVII. ECMOR.
• Nandi Formentin, Helena Vernon, Ian, Avansi, Guilherme Daniel, Caiado, Camila, Maschio, Celio, Goldstein, Michael & Schiozer, Denis Jose (2019), Systematic uncertainty reduction for petroleum reservoirs combining reservoir simulation and Bayesian emulation techniques, SPE Europec featured at 81st EAGE Annual Conference 2019. London, Society of Petroleum Engineers, SPE-195478-MS.
• Ferreira, C.J. Avansi, G. Vernon, I., Schiozer, D. J. & Goldstein, M. (2018), Evaluation of Regions of Influence for Dimensionality Reduction in Emulation of Production Data, 2018: ECMOR XVI - 16th European Conference on the Mathematics of Oil Recovery. Barcenola, Spain.
• Ferreira, C. J., Davolio, A., Schiozer, D. J., Vernon, I. & Goldstein, M. (2015), Use of Emulator and Canonical Correlation to Incorporate 4D Seismic Data in the Reduction of Uncertainty Process, EUROPEC 2015. Madrid, Spain, Society of Petroleum Engineers.
• Ferreira, C., Vernon, I., Schiozer, D.J. & Goldstein, M. (2014), Use of Emulator Methodology for Uncertainty Reduction Quantification, SPE Latin America and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference. Maracaibo, Venezuela, Society of Petroleum Engineers.
• Vernon, Ian R. & Goldstein, M. (2009), Bayes Linear Analysis of Imprecision in Computer Models, with Application to Understanding Galaxy Formation, in Augustin, T. Coolen, F.P.A. Moral, S. & Troffaes, M.C.M. eds, 6: Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA'09). Durham University, SIPTA, 441-450.

Journal Article

• Scarponi, Danny, Iskauskas, Andrew, Clark, Rebecca A, Vernon, Ian, McKinley, Trevelyan J., Goldstein, Michael, Mukandavire, Christinah, Deol, Arminder, Weerasuriya, Chathika, Bakker, Roel, White, Richard G & McCreesh, Nicky (2023). Demonstrating multi-country calibration of a tuberculosis model using new history matching and emulation package - hmer. Epidemics 43: 100678.
• Jackson, Samuel E. & Vernon, Ian (2023). Efficient Emulation of Computer Models Utilising Multiple Known Boundaries of Differing Dimension. Bayesian Analysis 18(1): 165-191.
• Vernon, I. & Gosling, J.P. (2022). A Bayesian Computer Model Analysis of Robust Bayesian Analyses. Bayesian Analysis 1-33.
• Hu, Baishan, Jaing, Weiguang, Miyagi, Takayuki, Sun, Zhonghao, Ekström, Andreas, Forssén, Christian, Hagen, Gaute, Holt, Jason D., Papenbrock, Thomas, Stroberg, S. Ragnar & Vernon, Ian (2022). Ab initio predictions link the neutron skin of 208Pb to nuclear forces. Nature Physics 18(10): 1196–1200.
• Vernon, I., Owen, J., Aylett-Bullock, J., Cuestra-Lazaro, C., Frawley, J., Quera-Bofarull, A., Sedgewick, A., Shi, D., Truong, H., Turner, M., Walker, J., Caulfield, T., Fong, K. & Krauss, F. (2022). Bayesian Emulation and History Matching of JUNE. Philosophical Transactions A 380(2233): 20220039.
• Dunne, Michael, Mohammadi, Hossein, Challenor, Peter, Borgo, Rita, Porphyre, Thibaud, Vernon, Ian, Firat, Elif E., Turkay, Cagatay, Torsney-Weir, Thomas, Goldstein, Michael, Reeve, Richard, Fang, Hui & Swallow, Ben (2022). Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model. Epidemics 39: 100574.
• Swallow, Ben, Birrell, Paul, Blake, Joshua, Burgman, Mark, Challenor, Peter, Coffeng, Luc E., Dawid, Philip, De Angelis, Daniela, Goldstein, Michael, Hemming, Victoria, Marion, Glenn, McKinley, Trevelyan J., Overton, Christopher E., Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina, Pellis, Lorenzo, Probert, Will, Shea, Katriona, Villela, Daniel & Vernon, Ian (2022). Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling. Epidemics 38: 100547.
• Aylett-Bullock, J., Cuesta-Lazaro, C., Quera-Bofarull, A., Icaza-Lizaola, M., Sedgewick, A., Truong, H., Curran, A., Elliott, E. Caulfield, T., Fong, K., Vernon, I. Williams, J., Bower, R. & Krauss, F. (2021). JUNE: open-source individual-based epidemiology simulation. Royal Society Open Science 8(7).
• Jackson, S.E., Vernon, I., Liu, J. & Lindsey, K. (2020). Understanding hormonal crosstalk in Arabidopsis root development via emulation and history matching. Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology 19(2): 20180053.
• Vernon, I. R., Jackson, S. E. & Cumming, J. A. (2019). Known Boundary Emulation of Complex Computer Models. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification 7(3): 838-876.
• Formentin, Helena Nandi, Almeida, Forlan la Rosa, Avansi, Guilherme Daniel, Maschio, Célio, Schiozer, Denis J., Caiado, Camila, Vernon, Ian & Goldstein, Michael (2019). Gaining more understanding about reservoir behavior through assimilation of breakthrough time and productivity deviation in the history matching process. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 173: 1080-1096.
• Ferreira, Carla, Vernon, Ian, Caiado, Camila, Formentin, Helena, Avansi, Guilherme, Goldstein, Michael & Schiozer, Denis (2019). Efficient Selection of Reservoir Model Outputs within an Emulation-Based Bayesian History Matching Uncertainty Analysis. SPE Journal OTC-29801-MS, 1-34.
• McCreesh, Nicky, Andrianakis, Ioannis, Nsubuga, Rebecca N., Strong, Mark, Vernon, Ian, McKinley, Trevelyan J., Oakley, Jeremy E., Goldstein, Michael, Hayes, Richard & White, Richard G. (2018). Choice of time horizon critical in estimating costs and effects of changes to HIV programmes. PLOS ONE 13(5): e0196480.
• Moreno, R., Avansi, G., Schiozer, D., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M. & Caiado, C. (2018). Emulation of reservoir production forecast considering variation in petrophysical properties. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 165: 711-725.
• McKinley, T. J., Vernon, I., Andrianakis, I., McCreesh, N., Oakley, J. E., Nsubuga, R., Goldstein, M. & White, R. G. (2018). Approximate Bayesian Computation and simulation-based inference for complex stochastic epidemic models. Statistical Science 33(1): 4-18.
• Vernon, I., Liu, J., Goldstein, M., Rowe, J., Topping, J. & Lindsey, K. (2018). Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex systems biology models: emulation, global parameter searches and evaluation of gene functions. BMC Systems Biology 12: 1.
• Formentin, Helena, Almeida, Forlan R Avansi, Guilherme D Maschio, Célio Schiozer, Denis J Caiado, Camila C Vernon, Ian R & Goldstein, Michael (2018). Getting more from dynamic data series for the history matching process: A study using the UNISIM-I-H case. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering (in submission) PETROL13721.
• Vernon, Ian (2018). Uncertainty Analysis for Heavy Simulations of Galaxy Formation. London Mathematical Society Newsletter 3(474): 28-33.
• McCreesh, N., Andrianakis, I., Nsubuga, R., Strong, M., Vernon, I., McKinley, T.J., Oakley, J.E., Goldstein, M., Hayes, R. & White, R.G. (2017). Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention – a modelling study. BMC Infectious Diseases 17(1): 557.
• Andrianakis, I., McCreesh, N., Vernon, I., McKinley, T. J., Oakley, J. E., Nsubuga, R., Goldstein, M. & White, R. G. (2017). Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification 5(1): 694-719.
• McCreesh, N., Andrianakis, I., Nsubuga, R., Strong, M., Vernon, I., McKinley, T.J. Oakley, J.E., Goldstein, M., Hayes, R. & White, R.G. (2017). Universal test, treat, and keep: improving ART retention is key in cost-effective HIV control in Uganda. BMC Infectious Diseases 17: 322.
• McCreesh, N., Andrianakis I., Nsubuga, R., Strong, M., Vernon, I., McKinley, T.J., Oakley, J.E., Goldstein, M., Hayes, R. & White, R.G. (2017). Costs and effects of changes to ART eligibility criteria in Uganda. PLoS ONE
• Rodrigues, Luiz Felippe S., Vernon, Ian & Bower, Richard G. (2017). Constraints on galaxy formation models from the galaxy stellar mass function and its evolution. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 466(2): 2418-2435.
• Jackson, Samuel E., Vernon, Ian, Liu, Junli & Lindsey, Keith (2017). Bayesian uncertainty analysis establishes the link between the parameter space of a complex model of hormonal crosstalk in Arabidopsis root development and experimental measurements. BMC Systems Biology (in submission)
• Andrianakis, I., Vernon, I., McCreesh, N., McKinley, T. J., Oakley, J. E., Nsubuga, R. N., Goldstein, M. & White, R. G. (2017). History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 66(4): 717-740.
• Andrianakis, Ioannis, Vernon, Ian, McCreesh, N., McKinley, T.J., Oakley, J.E., Nsubuga, R., Goldstein, M. & White, R.G. (2015). Bayesian history matching of complex infectious disease models using emulation: A tutorial and a case study on HIV in Uganda. PLoS Computational Biology 11(1): e1003968.
• Vernon, Ian, Goldstein, Michael & Bower, Richard (2014). Galaxy Formation: Bayesian History Matching for the Observable Universe. Statistical Science 29(1): 81-90.
• Bower, R. G., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., Benson, A. J., Lacey, C. G., Baugh, C. M., Cole, S. & Frenk, C. S. (2010). The Parameter Space of Galaxy Formation. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 407(4): 2017-2045.
• Vernon, Ian., Goldstein, Michael. & Bower, Richard G. (2010). Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis. Bayesian Analysis 05(04): 619 - 670.
• Vernon, Ian., Goldstein, Michael. & Bower, Richard G. (2010). Rejoinder - Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis. Bayesian Analysis 05(04): 697 - 708.
• Jennings, David., Vernon, Ian R., Davis, Anne-Christine. & van de Bruck, Carsten. (2005). Bulk black holes radiating in non-Z_2 brane-world spacetimes. Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics 2005(04): 013.
• Vernon, Ian R. & Jennings, David. (2005). Graviton Emission into Non-Z_2 Symmetric Brane World Spacetimes. Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics 07: 011.
• Davis, Anne-Christine, Vernon, Ian, Davis, Stephen C. & Perkins, Warren B. (2001). Brane World Cosmology Without the Z_2 Symmetry. Physics Letters B 504(3): 254-261.
• Davis, Stephen C., Perkins, Warren B., Davis, Anne-Christine & Vernon, Ian R. (2001). Cosmological phase transitions in a brane world. Physical Review D 63(8): 083518.
• Davis, Anne-Christine. Rhodes, Christophe. & Vernon, Ian R. (2001). Branes on the Horizon. Journal of High Energy Physics 11: 015.

Report

• Vernon, Ian, Seheult, Allan & Goldstein, Michael (2010). Modular Dynamic Emulation and Internal Model Discrepancy for a Rainfall Runoff Model. Sheffield MUCM.
• Vernon, Ian. R. & Goldstein, Michael (2010). A Bayes Linear Approach to Systems Biology. Sheffield, MUCM.
• House, L., Goldstein, M. & Vernon, I. R. (2009). Exchangeable Computer Models. Sheffield, MUCM.
• Vernon, Ian, Goldstein, Michael & Bower, Richard G. (2009). Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis. Sheffield MUCM.