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Durham University



Publication details for Professor David Over

Evans, J. S. B. T., Handley, S.J. & Over, D.E. (2003). Conditionals and conditional probability. Journal Of Experimental Psychology - Learning, Memory, and Cognition 29(2): 321-335.

Author(s) from Durham


The authors report 3 experiments in which participants were invited to
judge the probability of statements of the form if p then q given
frequency information about the cases pq, p-q, -pq, and -p-q (where -
not). Three hypotheses were compared: (a) that people equate the
probability with that of the material conditional, 1 - P(p-q); (b) that
people assign the conditional probability, P(q/p); and (c) that people
assign the conjunctive probability P(pq). The experimental evidence
allowed rejection of the 1st hypothesis but provided some support for
the 2nd and 3rd hypotheses. Individual difference analyses showed that
half of the participants used conditional probability and that most of
the remaining participants used conjunctive probability as the basis of
their judgments.

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