Emergencies, Tipping Points and Fragilities
Tipping Points in Modelling
Convenor: Dr Camila Caiado (MathematicalSciences)
Mathematical and computational models are widely used by physical and social scientists. These models are normally used to investigate the dynamics of a complex system like climate, financial markets, energy systems or societal behaviour. Due to the complexity of the systems being analysed, it is often necessary to investigate the fragility of such models and explore its capability to adapt to tipping points such as drastic climate change, financial crisis, blackouts or social epidemics.
Through a series of interdisciplinary seminar lunches, the following issues will be discussed:
- How stable and close to reality are model outputs when near a tipping point?
- How does the level of complexity of a model affect the predictability of important events?
- How can we differentiate a tipping point induced by the modelling process and a real tipping point?
- How do we assess the fragility of a model?
- How do mathematical, statistical and agent-based models differ when capturing the dynamics of tipping points in a complex system?
This series will maintain continuity and expansion of the interest group which has built up through previous IAS modelling seminar series and addresses new questions raised by researchers in previous sessions. The seminars are open to all researchers at Durham, and collaborators.
Lunch will be provided but spaces are limited, please sign-up to any of the events listed by contacting Camila Caiado (firstname.lastname@example.org) .
These seminars will take place at the Institute of Advanced Study, 1.00-2.00pm, unless otherwise stated. Lunch will be available from 12.30pm. However, the workshop on 4 September is taking place in the Ken Wade lecture theatre, Calman Learning Centre, Science Site