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Institute of Advanced Study

Modelling Uncertainty in Complex Models Workshop

2nd & 3rd July 2007

Palace Green, Durham University

The Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models group (MUCM) is holding two one-day workshops in July for those who build, use or rely on science-based models for prediction of complex real-world processes. These workshops are focussed on applications in the biological and health sciences, although the MUCM methods are applicable much more generally.

The workshops will be held on the 2nd and 3rd July, 2008, in Durham in association with the Institute of Advanced Study. Attendance is free at these workshops and lunch will be provided. Because of the limited numbers that we can accommodate, particularly for the hands-on workshop, those wishing to come are advised to register as early as possible. See the link at the bottom of this page. If you would like to view the schedules for each day, please click here.

Dissemination Workshop

Lecture Room 21, Palace Green

The first workshop, on July 2nd, will explain the power of MUCM methods to quantify and analyse the uncertainties in the outputs of complex models. Tony O'Hagan will open the workshop with an overview of the MUCM methods for uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation of models. This will be followed by a series of short case studies exemplifying their use in a range of applications. In accordance with the focus on biological and health sciences, three planned case studies will be in cellular reactions, rotavirus epidemiology and systems biology. However, no specialist knowledge will be assumed for the case studies, and this workshop is open to anyone interested in the management and implications of uncertainty in model outputs. The workshop will continue with a review by Michael Goldstein of ongoing research in the field and the future potential of these methods. There will be ample opportunity for discussion and interaction throughout the workshop.

The dissemination workshop is pitched at a conceptual level, for those whose primary interest is to understand what the MUCM methods can do. This includes researchers, research leaders, policy- and decision-makers, research funders and those concerned with the communication of model-based science to policy-makers or the general public. It will also be relevant (but not necessary) for those attending the hands-on workshop.

Places at the dissemination Workshop will be limited to 60. 

Hands-on Workshop

Cosin's Hall, Palace Green

The second workshop will be on 3rd July, and will provide a more detailed and practical introduction to some of the most basic MUCM methods. Practical sessions will use the GEM-SA and SHELF software packages (Both packages are free, and pre-workshop notes including instructions on downloading them will be sent to delegates in June.) Delegates will be expected to bring their own laptop PCs.

The hands-on workshop is intended for people who expect to make direct use of the tools for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, and is suitable for postdocs as well as more senior researchers.

Places at the hands-on workshop will be limited to 25.

Experience with previous workshops for the environmental and engineering sciences suggests that early registration is essential, and this workshop will be strictly for researchers in the biological and health sciences.


Please register for these workshops by emailing the MUCM Project Manager, Jo Green. (

Your email should include your name, title, affiliation and department. For the hands-on workshop, please also say how you expect that knowledge of MUCM methods might be relevant to your work.

Accommodation is not provided. Please let us know if you would like advice on available options.