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Durham University

Department of Engineering

Staff Profile

Publication details for Dr Christopher Crabtree

Smith, C.J., Crabtree, C.J. & Matthews, P.C. (2015), Evaluation of Synthetic Wind Speed Time Series for Reliability Analysis of Offshore Wind Farms, European Wind Energy Association 2015. Paris, France, European Wind Energy Association, Paris.

Author(s) from Durham


A method for synthesising wind speed time series
(WSTS) from limited data is required that can be
used for reliability examination of wind farms and
maintenance strategies for a range of wind speed
scenarios. Key characteristics of the wind
resource need to be captured, including energy
availability and maintenance weather windows. 4
WSTS simulators were used to produce synthetic
WSTS based on benchmark data from a
meteorological mast data at the offshore Egmond
aan Zee wind farm in the Netherlands.
These synthetic WSTS were compared with test
criteria to determine their suitability for reliability
analysis. This included comparing the synthetic
WSTS to the benchmark data in terms of the
energy availability in the wind and from a typical
turbine, residence time at wind speeds, number of
transitions between 1m/s wind speed bins,
replication of seasonal characteristics including
weather windows, and underlying statistical
Based on the chosen criteria, the most appropriate
WSTS simulator was the modified Markov process.
However, no modelling technique performed best
against all criteria and none capture the autocorrelation
function (ACF) as closely as desired.
Therefore, there is scope for a more advanced
technique for wind speed modelling for reliability
analysis which combines the best aspects of the
models used in this work.


Conference dates: 17-20 November 2015