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Durham University

Durham Energy Institute

Past Events

Find out about some of the previous events held by Durham Energy Institute:

IAS seminar: Robust common-cause failure modelling in power networks with non-immediate repair

12th March 2015, 13:00 to 14:00, Seminar Room, Institute of Advanced Study, Dr Matthias Troffaes, Durham University

Tipping Points in Modelling Seminar Series

Power networks are commonly modelled using continuous
time Markov chains. Although they are analytically attractive, in practice, the assumptions underlying these models are not necessarily representative of real power networks observed in practice.

Moreover, the parameters of the model can be hard to estimate from data. In this talk, we present a model based on so-called imprecise continuous time Markov chains, in which we relax the assumption of transition rates being precise and constant, instead allowing the rates to vary between bounds in a time-inhomogeneous way. For estimation of these bounds, we use a generalisation of the standard alpha-factor model for common cause failures that can deal with asymmetry, in order to apply the model to power networks, which are typically asymmetric. We show how practical bounds on the probability of various failure events can be calculated. Finally, we demonstrate our methodology on a simple yet realistic example.

Lunch will be provided from 12h30, please sign-up by contacting Camila Caiado (

Contact for more information about this event.