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Durham University

Durham Energy Institute

Past Events

Find out about some of the previous events held by Durham Energy Institute:

Use of wind speed ensemble forecasts for prediction and control in electricity systems.

3rd February 2015, 13:00 to 14:00, E245 (ECS)

Seminar by Dr. Gruff Edwards who has recently joined the Department of Engineering and Computer Sciences.

The presentation will report on work relating to the value of ensemble forecasts of wind speed, regarded as stochastic processes evolving in space and time, for prediction and control in electricity networks. This work was conducted at Heriot-Watt University by Dr Gruffudd Edwards and Dr Stan Zachary, and is illustrated by ensemble forecast data provided by MeteoGroup, and observation data provided by the Met Office, covering southern Scotland.

Ensemble forecasts may be used to provide predictive distributions for variables whose definitions involve multiple physical locations and/or multiple points in time, a currently important example of which is the wind resource availability in southern Scotland. Although the spatio-temporal behaviour of ensemble forecasts at a set of six locations was examined, much of the work was concerned with the simpler case of the temporal evolution of ensemble forecasts at a single location. Various aspects of the forecast’s dynamical behaviour at this location were examined, and the best way of validating the temporal structure of such forecasts with respect to observational data was considered. To explore the value of this approach, we considered the extent to which conditional probability arguments may be used to rapidly update predictive distributions derived from the ensembles, based solely on the use of observations of the forecast quantities made subsequently to the times at which the forecasts were issued.