A team of scientists, including researchers from our Earth Sciences Department, has discovered new evidence that long-lasting droughts played a major role in the decline of the ancient Maya civilisation more than a thousand years ago.
By studying the chemical makeup of a stalagmite from a cave in Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, the researchers discovered a series of severe dry spells between 871 and 1021 CE, the period historians call the Terminal Classic.
The longest drought lasted an astonishing 13 years.
The research, led by the University of Cambridge, analysed oxygen isotopes in the stalagmite, which grows slowly over centuries as water drips onto the cave floor.
These isotopes reveal changes in rainfall, allowing scientists to pinpoint the conditions of individual wet and dry seasons, a level of detail never achieved for this period in Maya history.
The findings show there were eight wet-season droughts lasting at least three years, which would have made it extremely difficult for the Maya to grow crops, even with their advanced water management systems.
This matches archaeological evidence showing that major cities, such as Chichén Itzá, stopped building monuments during these harsh periods.
Professor James Baldini, Dr Christopher Ottley, and Dr Alex Iveson from our Department of Earth Sciences played a key role in the project.
They carried out specialist trace element analysis on the stalagmite using laser technology.
This helped confirm that the climate record was accurate and ruled out other possible explanations for the changes seen in the cave sample.
These stalagmites not only tell us about the collapse of Maya civilisation but could also help us understand how climate has influenced other societies through time.
Our Department of Earth Sciences is ranked in the top 100 in the QS World University Rankings by Subject 2025. Visit our Earth Sciences webpages for more information on our undergraduate and postgraduate programmes.
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