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Tipping Points

Tipping Points Events

Herding, innovations and tipping points in financial systems

15th July 2011, 08:45 to 17:45, Lindisfarne Suite, St Aidan's College, Durham University

We have become acutely aware of the modern complexity of financial systems, with seemingly increasing potential for events cascading from unexpected, minor causes. As recent 'ecosystem' models of banking demonstrate, unpredictability and flux are the essence of evolution among highly interconnected agents. This workshop will explore models and historical approaches, treating banks as interconnected agents rather than isolated, rationally-acting units, which naturally bring about the essential element of flux and unpredictability in financial systems. Thinking more probabilistically, we aim to consider the historical processes and patterns in the spread of financial innovation and evolution.

The Centre for the Coevolution of Biology and Culture is a co-sponsor of this event.


25 minute presentations, each with 10 minutes for questions

08.45-8:55 Welcome

09.00 David Petley, Durham University, Tipping Points Director Welcome

09.10 Alex Bentley, Durham University, Tipping Points Deputy Director

09.35 Mark Buchanan, Tipping Points Steering Committee.
Is financial prediction like weather prediction?

10.10 Paul Ormerod, Volterra consulting and Durham University
21st century rationality: models of herding and innovation

10.45-11.05: Coffee

Modelling financial activity

11.15 Didier Sornette, ETH Zürich
The financial crisis observatory: diagnosing financial bubbles and predicting financial crashes

11.50 Stefan Thurner, Section for Science of Complex Systems, Medical University of Vienna
Financial cascades and clustered volatility

12.25  Rich Colbaugh and Kristin Glass, Sandia National Laboratories, USA Predictability of markets: What can network topology tell us?

13.00-13.55: Lunch

The Banking world

14.00 Ranald Michie and Simon Mollan, Durham University
Financial innovation in historical context

14.35 Roman Tomasic and Folarin Akinbami, Durham University Regulating financial activity

15.10-15.30 Coffee

15.30   Reflections

Ian Bond, Former Head of Financial Crisis Management Division, Bank of England

16.00: Discussion

Contact for more information about this event.