Colleagues are very welcome at the following events hosted by CHESS and K4U (ERC project) this academic year
Workshop: Adequacy for Purpose
Paul Glover (Senior Principal Analyst, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory) and Paul Pearce (Principal Analyst, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory)
Fitness for purpose: A practitioner’s view on the concept of Adequacy in Analysis
Dr Wendy Parker (Durham University)
Model evaluation: An adequacy-for-purpose view
Joe Roussos (London School of Economics)
Making confident decisions with model ensembles (joint paper with Prof Roman Frigg, LSE)
Abstract: Increasingly many policy decisions take input from collections of scientific models. Such decisions face significant and often poorly understood uncertainty. We rework a recently developed theory of decision-making under severe uncertainty—called the “confidence approach”—to tackle decision-making with multiple models, showing how it can be used to construct nested sets of predictions of increasing specificity. We discuss the conditions under which particular sets are available to decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with a case study: an insurance pricing decision using hurricane models. The confidence approach has important consequences for this case and offers a powerful framework for a wide class of problems. We end with a consideration of different methods for nested set construction, appropriate to different collections of models.
Prof Mark von Rosing (Global University Alliance)
An adequacy-for-purpose view on: What factors influence or determine the content
of different enterprise models?
All welcome and refreshments provided – please contact the Centre Administrator at email@example.com to confirm attendance
Contact firstname.lastname@example.org for more information about this event.
Department of Philosophy
50 Old Elvet
DH1 3HN, UK
Tel: 0191 334 6552
Fax: 0191 334 6551