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Durham University

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Staff Profile

Matthias Troffaes, PhD Ghent University

Personal web page

Professor, Probability in the Department of Mathematical Sciences
Telephone: +44 (0) 191 33 43122
Room number: CM304

Contact Matthias Troffaes (email at matthias.troffaes@durham.ac.uk)

Biography

After receiving his MSc degree in engineering (theoretical physics) in 2000 from Gent University, Belgium, Matthias Troffaes joined the SYSTeMS research group at the same university as a doctoral researcher, pursuing research in imprecise probability theory under the guidance of Gert de Cooman, earning the degree of PhD in April 2005. In July 2005, he went to Carnegie Mellon University as a Francqui Foundation Fellow of the Belgian American Educational Foundation, working as a post-doctoral researcher with Teddy Seidenfeld. In September 2006, he became a lecturer in statistics at the Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, where he is currently Associate Professor (Reader) in Statistics.

Research

My research is concerned with modelling and quantifying severe uncertainty and decision making under severe uncertainty. My interests lie in the theoretical foundations behind such modelling, as well as practical applications of such modelling.

In many practical applications, severe uncertainty arises due to insufficient data or expert opinion, relative to the complexity of the model. In such cases, it has been argued that no unique probability distribution can really honestly describe our knowledge. This discussion has a long history; see for instance Boole (1854), Keynes (1921), Williams (1975), Walley (1991), Weichselberger (1995), Shafer & Vovk (2001), Troffaes & De Cooman (2014), and many others.

For example, consider the probability that it rains on the day exactly twenty years from now. Experts may have a hard time to put a precise number on such probability, due to the complexity of climate modelling, but also due to uncertainty about climate change and about how politicians will respond it. However, experts may find it much easier to specify lower and upper bounds on such probability. From a Bayesian point of view, experts may have a hard time to put a precise prior distribution over such probability, but they may find it much easier to specify a set of prior distributions, for instance by bounding prior predictive quantities.

My work focuses on the mathematical theory for propagating probability bounds through models and through decision problems. I also look at practical statistical applications of such theories, mostly in engineering and in environmental sciences.

Research Groups

Department of Mathematical Sciences

  • Probability & Statistics: Probability

Research Interests

  • Decision making
  • Foundations of probability and statistics
  • Uncertainty modelling
  • Risk
  • Severe uncertainty
  • Imprecise probability
  • Engineering
  • Renewable energy
  • Environment

Teaching Areas

  • Analytical Methods II (18 hours/year.)
  • Bayesian Statistics III/IV (20 hours/year.)
  • Decision Theory III (38 hours/year.)
  • Operations Research III (20 hours/year.)
  • Probability I (27 hours/year.)
  • Statistics I (18 hours/year.)

Selected Publications

Authored book

  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & De Cooman, Gert (2012). Lower previsions. Wiley.

Edited book

  • Augustin, Thomas, Coolen, Frank P. A., De Cooman, Gert & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2014). Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics. Wiley.
  • Coolen-Schrijner, Pauline, Coolen, Frank P. A., Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Augustin, Thomas & Gupta, Sat (2009). Imprecision in Statistical Theory and Practice. Grace Scientific Publishing.

Chapter in book

  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Hable, Robert (2014). Computation. In Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities. Augustin, Thomas, Coolen, Frank P. A., De Cooman, Gert & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. Wiley. 329-337.
  • Huntley, Nathan, Hable, Robert & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2014). Decision making. In Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities. Augustin, Thomas, Coolen, Frank P. A., de Cooman, Gert & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. Wiley. 190-206.
  • Coolen, Frank P. A., Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Augustin, Thomas (2011). Imprecise probability. In International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science. Lovric, Miodrag Springer.
  • Coolen-Schrijner, Pauline, Coolen, Frank P. A., Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Augustin, Thomas (2009). Imprecision in Statistical Theory and Practice. In Imprecision in Statistical Theory and Practice. Coolen-Schrijner, Pauline, Coolen, Frank P. A., Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Augustin, Thomas Grace Scientific Publishing.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2006). Efficient and Robust Global Amino Acid Sequence Alignment with Uncertain Evolutionary Distances. In Modern Information Processing: From Theory to Applications. Bouchon-Meunier, Bernadette, Coletti, Giulianella & Yager, Ronald Elsevier Science Ltd. 371-381.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & De Cooman, Gert (2003). Extension of coherent lower previsions to unbounded random variables. In Intelligent Systems for Information Processing: From Representation to Applications. Bouchon-Meunier, B., Foulloy, L. & Yager, R. R. North-Holland. 277-288.

Journal Article

  • Nakharutai, Nawapon, Caiado, Camila C. S. & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2019). Evaluating betting odds and free coupons using desirability. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 106: 128-145.
  • Nakharutai, Nawapon, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Caiado, Camila (2019). Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for decision making with lower previsions. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 113: 91-105.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2018). Imprecise Monte Carlo simulation and iterative importance sampling for the estimation of lower previsions. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 101: 31-48.
  • Nakharutai, Nawapon, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Caiado, Camila C. S. (2018). Improved linear programming methods for checking avoiding sure loss. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 101: 293-310.
  • Sahlin, Ullrika & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2017). A note on EFSA’s ongoing efforts to increase transparency of uncertainty in scientific opinions. Journal of Risk Research
  • Edwards, Gruffudd, Sheehy, Sarah, Dent, Chris & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2017). Assessing the Contribution of Nightly Rechargeable Grid-Scale Storage to Generation Capacity Adequacy. Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 12: 69-81.
  • Miranda, Enrique, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Destercke, Sébastien (2015). A geometric and game-theoretic study of the conjunction of possibility measures. Information Sciences 298: 373–389.
  • Greenwood, David M., Gentle, Jake P., Myers, Kurt S., Davison, Peter J., West, Isaac J., Bush, Jason W., Ingram, Grant L. & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2014). A Comparison of Real Time Thermal Rating Systems in the U.S. and the UK. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 29(4): 1849-1858.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Walter, Gero & Kelly, Dana (2014). A robust Bayesian approach to modelling epistemic uncertainty in common-cause failure models. Reliability engineering & system safety 125: 13-21.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Miranda, Enrique & Destercke, Sebastien (2013). On the connection between probability boxes and possibility measures. Information Sciences 224: 88-108.
  • Huntley, Nathan & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2012). Normal Form Backward Induction for Decision Trees with Coherent Lower Previsions. Annals of Operations Research 195(1): 111-134.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Gosling, John Paul (2012). Robust detection of exotic infectious diseases in animal herds: A comparative study of three decision methodologies under severe uncertainty. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 53(8): 1271-1281.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Destercke, Sébastien (2011). Probability boxes on totally preordered spaces for multivariate modelling. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 52(6): 767-791.
  • Augustin, Thomas, Coolen, Frank P. A., Moral, Serafín & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2010). Imprecise probability in statistical inference and decision making. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 51(9): 1011-1013.
  • Coolen, Frank P. A., Oberguggenberger, Michael & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2010). Uncertainty in Engineering Risk and Reliability: Introduction. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 224(4): i-vi.
  • Troffaes, Matthias & Coolen, Frank (2009). Applying the imprecise Dirichlet model in cases with partial observations and dependencies in failure data. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 50(2): 257-268.
  • Troffaes, Matthias (2009). Finite approximations to coherent choice. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 50(4): 655-665.
  • Coolen-Schrijner, Pauline, Coolen, Frank P. A., Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Augustin, Thomas (2009). Imprecision in Statistical Theory and Practice. Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice 3(1): 1-9.
  • de Cooman, Gert, Troffaes, Matthias & Miranda, Enrique (2008). A unifying approach to integration for bounded positive charges. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 340(2): 982-999.
  • de Cooman, Gert, Troffaes, Matthias & Miranda, Enrique (2008). n-Monotone exact functionals. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 347(1): 143-156.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C.M. (2007). Decision making under uncertainty using imprecise probabilities. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 45(1): 17-29.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2006). Generalizing The Conjunction Rule for Aggregating Conflicting Expert Opinions. International Journal of Intelligent Systems 21(3): 361-380.
  • De Cooman, Gert & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2005). Dynamic Programming for Deterministic Discrete-Time Systems with Uncertain Gain. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 39(2-3): 257-278.
  • De Cooman, Gert, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Miranda, Enrique (2005). n-Monotone lower previsions. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems 16(4): 253-263.
  • De Cooman, Gert & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2004). Coherent lower previsions in systems modelling: products and aggregation rules. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 85(1-3): 113-134.

Conference Paper

  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Basu, Tathagata (2019), A Cantelli-type inequality for constructing non-parametric p-boxes based on exchangeability, in Bock, Jasper De Campos, Cassio P. de Cooman, Gert de Quaeghebeur, Erik & Wheeler, Gregory eds, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 103: ISIPTA'19. Ghent, PMLR, 386-393.
  • Bains, Henna, Madariaga, Ander, Kazemtabrizi, Behzad & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2019), The Impact of Offshore Transmission Regulatory Regimes on Technology Choices, CIGRE Symposium. Aalborg.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Krak, Thomas & Bains, Henna (2019), Two-State Imprecise Markov Chains for Statistical Modelling of Two-State Non-Markovian Processes, in Bock, Jasper De Campos, Cassio P. de Cooman, Gert de Quaeghebeur, Erik & Wheeler, Gregory eds, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 103: ISIPTA'19. Ghent, PMLR, 394-403.
  • Cervantes, C. J. F., Kazemtabrizi, B. & Troffaes, M. C. M. (2018), Contingency Ranking in Power Systems via Reliability Rates, 18th IEEE International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering. Palermo, Italy, IEEE, Piscataway, NJ.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Fetz, Thomas & Oberguggenberger, Michael (2018), Iterative Importance Sampling for Estimating Expectation Bounds Under Partial Probability Specifications, The 8th International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing (REC2018). Liverpool.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2017), A note on imprecise Monte Carlo over credal sets via importance sampling, in Antonucci, Alessandro, Corani, Giorgio, Couso, Inés & Destercke, Sébastien eds, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 62: The Tenth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA ’17). Lugano, Switzerland, PMLR, 325-332.
  • Nakharutai, Nawapon, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Caiado, Camila C. C. S. (2017), Efficient algorithms for checking avoiding sure loss, in Antonucci, Alessandro, Corani, Giorgio, Couso, Inés & Destercke, Sébastien eds, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 62: The Tenth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA ’17). Lugano, Switzerland, PMLR, 241-252.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Sahlin, Ullrika (2017), Imprecise swing weighting for multi-attribute utility elicitation based on partial preferences, in Antonucci, Alessandro, Corani, Giorgio, Couso, Inés & Destercke, Sébastien eds, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 62: The Tenth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA ’17). Lugano, Switzerland, PMLR, 333-345.
  • Heylen, Evelyn, Deconinck, Geert, Van Hertem, Dirk, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Kazemtabrizi, Behzad (2017), Qualitative comparison of techniques for evaluating performance of short term power system reliability management, 2017 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe (ISGT-Europe). Torino, Italy, IEEE, Piscataway, 333-339.
  • Sheehy, S., Edwards, G., Dent, C. J., Kazemtabrizi, B., Troffaes, M. C. M. & Tindemans, S. (2016), Impact of high wind penetration on variability of unserved energy in power system adequacy, International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS). Beijing, IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, 1-6.
  • Paton, Lewis, Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Boatman, Nigel, Hussein, Mohamud & Hart, Andy (2015), A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations, in Augustin, T. , Doria, S. , Miranda, E. & Quaeghebeur, E. eds, ISIPTA 2015. Pescara, Italy, SIPTA, Pescara, 217-226.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Williams, Edward & Dent, Chris J. (2015), Data Analysis and Robust Modelling of the Impact of Renewable Generation on Long Term Security of Supply and Demand, 2015 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting. Denver, Colorado, US, IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, 1-5.
  • Troffaes, Matthias, Gledhill, Jacob, Škulj, Damjan & Blake, Simon (2015), Using imprecise continuous time Markov chains for assessing the reliability of power networks with common cause failure and non-immediate repair, in Augustin, T. , Doria, S. , Miranda, E. & Quaeghebeur, E. eds, ISIPTA 2015. Pescara, Italy, Pescara, 287-294.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Coolen, Frank P. A. & Destercke, Sebastien (2014), A Note on Learning Dependence Under Severe Uncertainty, Communications in Computer and Information Science 444: Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems. Montpellier, France, Springer, Montpellier, 498-507.
  • Paton, Lewis, Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Boatman, Nigel, Hussein, Mohamud & Hart, Andy (2014), Multinomial logistic regression on Markov chains for crop rotation modelling, Communications in Computer and Information Science 444: Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems. Montpellier, France, Springer, Montpellier, 476-485.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Goldstein, Michael (2013), A Note on the Temporal Sure Preference Principle and the Updating of Lower Previsions, in Cozman, Fabio, Denoeux, Thierry, Destercke, Sebastien & Seidenfeld, Teddy eds, ISIPTA'13: Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Compiegne, France, SIPTA, Compiegne, 319-328.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Blake, Simon (2013), A Robust Data Driven Approach to Quantifying Common-Cause Failure in Power Networks, in Cozman, Fabio, Denoeux, Thierry, Destercke, Sebastien & Seidenfeld, Teddy eds, ISIPTA'13: Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Compiegne, France, SIPTA, Compiegne, 311-317.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Paton, Lewis (2013), Logistic Regression on Markov Chains for Crop Rotation Modelling, in Cozman, Fabio, Denoeux, Thierry, Destercke, Sebastien & Seidenfeld, Teddy eds, ISIPTA'13: Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Compiegne, France, SIPTA, Compiegne, 329-336.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Skulj, Damjan (2013), Model Checking for Imprecise Markov Chains, in Cozman, Fabio, Denoeux, Thierry, Destercke, Sebastien & Seidenfeld, Teddy eds, ISIPTA'13: Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Compiegne, France, SIPTA, Compiegne, 337-344.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Destercke, Sébastien (2012), A Nested Approach to Multivariate Modelling Using Lower Previsions, 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012). Helsinki, Finland, Helsinki, 6764-6772.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Kelly, Dana L. & Walter, Gero (2012), Imprecise Dirichlet Model for Common-Cause Failure, 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012). Helsinki, Finland, Helsinki, 6722-6728.
  • Huntley, Nathan & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2011), Dynamic Programming and Subtree Perfectness for Deterministic Discrete-Time Systems with Uncertain Rewards, in Coolen, Frank, de Cooman, Gert, Fetz, Thomas & Oberguggenberger, Michael eds, 7th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Innsbruck, SIPTA, Innsbruck, 209-218.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Kelly, Dana L. & Walter, Gero (2011), Elicitation and Inference for the Imprecise Dirichlet Model with Arbitrary Sets of Hyperparameters, 4th International Conference of the ERCIM (European Research Consortium for Informatics and Mathematics). 38-38.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Miranda, Enrique & Destercke, Sébastien (2011), On P-Boxes and Random Sets, 4th International Conference of the ERCIM (European Research Consortium for Informatics and Mathematics). 19-19.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Miranda, Enrique & Destercke, Sébastien (2011), On the connection between probability boxes and possibility measures, 7th conference of the European Society for Fuzzy Logic and Technology (EUSFLAT '11). Aix Les Bains, France, EUSFLAT, Aix Les Bains, 836-843.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Destercke, Sébastien (2011), Probability boxes on totally preordered spaces for multivariate modelling, in Coolen, Frank, de Cooman, Gert, Fetz, Thomas & Oberguggenberger, Michael eds, 7th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Innsbruck, SIPTA, Innsbruck, 343-352.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Gosling, John Paul (2011), Robust detection of exotic infectious diseases in animal herds: A comparative study of two decision methodologies under severe uncertainty, in Coolen, Frank, de Cooman, Gert, Fetz, Thomas & Oberguggenberger, Michael eds, 7th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Innsbruck, SIPTA, Innsbruck, 353-360.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Hable, Robert (2011), Robustness of Natural Extension, in Coolen, Frank, de Cooman, Gert, Fetz, Thomas & Oberguggenberger, Michael eds, 7th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Innsbruck, SIPTA, Innsbruck, 361-370.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., Huntley, Nathan & Shirota Filho, Ricardo (2010), Sequential Decision Processes under Act-State Independence with Arbitrary Choice Functions, in Hüllermeier, Eyke, Kruse, Rudolf & Hoffmann, Frank eds, Communications in Computer and Information Science 80: Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems. Heidelberg, Springer, Heidelberg, 98-107.
  • Huntley, Nathan & Troffaes, Matthias (2009), Characterizing factuality in normal form sequential decision making, in Augustin, Thomas, Coolen, Frank, Moral, Serafin & Troffaes, Matthias eds, ISIPTA'09: Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Durham, England, SIPTA, Durham, 239-248.
  • Huntley, Nathan & Troffaes, Matthias (2008), An efficient normal form solution to decision trees with lower previsions, Advances in Soft Computing: Soft Methods for Handling Variability and Imprecision Fourth International Workshop on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics. Toulouse, France, Springer, Toulouse, 419-426.
  • Miranda, Enrique, Troffaes, Matthias & Destercke, Sebastien (2008), Generalised p-boxes on totally ordered spaces, Advances in Soft Computing: Soft Methods for Handling Variability and Imprecision Fourth International Workshop on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics. Toulouse, France, Springer, Toulouse, 235-242.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2007), Finite approximations to coherent choice, in de Cooman, Gert de Cooman, Vejnarova, Jirina & Zaffalon, Marco eds, ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Prague, Czech Republic, Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Prague, 425-434.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Coolen, Frank P. A. (2007), On the use of the imprecise Dirichlet model in fault trees, Mathematical Methods in Reliability: Proceedings Mathematical Methods in Reliability. Glasgow, Scotland, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2006), Conditional Lower Previsions for Unbounded Random Quantities, in Lawry, Jonathan, Miranda, Enrique, Bugarin, Alberto, Li, Shoumei, Ángeles Gil, Mariá, Grzegorzewski, Przemyslaw & Hryniewicz, Olgierd eds, Advances in Soft Computing: Soft Methods in Probability for Integrated Uncertainty Modelling Third International Workshop on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics. Bristol, UK, Springer, Bristol, 201-209.
  • De Cooman, Gert, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Miranda, Enrique (2005), n-Monotone lower previsions and lower integrals, in Cozman, Fabio G., Nau, Robert & Seidenfeld, Teddy eds, Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications. Pittsburgh, USA, Pittsburgh PA, 145-154.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2004), Adaptive control without prior by dynamic programming, in De Jager, Bram & Verdult, Vincent eds, 23rd Benelux Meeting on Systems and Control, Book of Abstracts 23rd Benelux Meeting on Systems and Control. Eindhoven, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Eindhoven, 68-68.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2004), Efficient and Robust Global Amino Acid Sequence Alignment with Uncertain Evolutionary Distances, Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference IPMU 2004 (Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems) 1: Tenth International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems. Perugia, Italy, Perugia, 571-578.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2004), Learning and Optimal Control of Imprecise Markov Decision Processes by Dynamic Programming Using the Imprecise Dirichlet Model, in Lopéz-Díaz Miguel,, Gil, Maria A., Grzegorzewski, Przemyslaw, Hyrniewicz, Olgierd & Lawry, Jonathan eds, Soft Methodology and Random Information Systems SMPS 2004. Oviedo, Spain, Springer, Oviedo, 141-148.
  • De Cooman, Gert & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2003), Dynamic Programming for Discrete-Time Systems with Uncertain Gain, in Bernard, Jean-Marc, Seidenfeld, Teddy & Zaffalon, Marco eds, Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications (ISIPTA '03). Lugano, Switzerland, Carleton Scientific, Lugano, 162-176.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2003), Natural selection in aggregation or how evolutionary game theory may help in aggregating imprecise expert opinions, 7th workshop on dynamics and computation, iterated games and cooperation. Heverlee, Belgium, Heverlee, 35-6.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & De Cooman, Gert (2003), Reliable Interval Estimates for Download Times, Fourth FTW PhD Symposium Faculty of Engineering, Ghent University. Gent, Belgium, Ghent.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2003), Uncertainty and Conflict: A Behavioural Approach to the Aggregation of Expert Opinions, in Vejnarova, Jirina eds, Proceedings of 6th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing (WUPES 2003). Hejnice, Czech Republic, VSE - Oeconomica Publishers, Hejnice, 263-277.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & De Cooman, Gert (2002), Extension of Coherent Lower Previsions to Unbounded Random Variables, Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems (IPMU '02). Annecy, France, ESIA - Université de Savoie, Annecy, 735-42.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & De Cooman, Gert (2002), Lower Previsions for Unbounded Random Variables, in Grzegorzewski, Przemyslaw, OHryniewicz, lgierd & Gil, Maria A. eds, Advances in Soft Computing Soft Methods in Probability, Statistics and Data Analysis (SMPS '02). Warsaw, Poland, Physica-Verlag, Warsaw, 146-155.
  • De Cooman, Gert & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2002), Optimal Control with Imprecise Gain through Dynamic Programming, in De Jager, Bram & Zwart, Hans eds, 21st Benelux Meeting on Systems and Control, Book of Abstracts 21st Benelux Meeting on Systems and Control. Eindhoven, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Eindhoven, 94.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & De Cooman, Gert (2002), The combination of conflicting information, Proceedings of the 3rd FTW PhD Symposium 3rd FTW PhD Symposium. Gent, Belgium, Ghent.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., De Cooman, Gert & Aeyels, Dirk (2001), Imprecise probabilities - discussion and open problems, Proceedings of the 2nd FTW PhD Symposium 2nd FTW PhD Symposium. Gent, Belgium, Ghent.
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M., De Cooman, Gert & Aeyels, Dirk (2001), Optimal control under imprecision, 20th Benelux Meeting on Systems and Control, Book of Abstracts 20th Benelux Meeting on Systems and Control. 71-71.

Conference Proceeding

  • Augustin, Thomas, Coolen, Frank P.A., Moral, Serafín & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2009). Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, Durham, UK, SIPTA.

Doctoral Thesis

  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2005). Optimality, Uncertainty, and Dynamic Programming with Lower Previsions. Department of Electrical Energy, Systems & Automation. Universiteit Gent. PhD: 384.

Edited Journal

  • Augustin, Thomas, Coolen, Frank P. A., Moral, Serafin & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2010). International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. 51 (9): Elsevier.
  • Coolen, Frank P. A., Oberguggenberger, Michael & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2010). Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability. 224 (4).
  • Coolen-Schrijner, Pauline, Coolen, Frank, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Augustin, Thomas (2009). Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice. 3 (1): Grace Scientific Publishing.

Masters Thesis

  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2000). Quantum algorithmes: theoretische aspecten en toepassingen. Universiteit Gent. Masters.

Other (Print)

  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2004). Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilities: A Short Review. The SIPTA Newsletter 4-7.

Presentation

  • Nakharutai, Nawapon, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Caiado, Camila (2019), Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for decision making with lower previsions, ISIPTA'19. Ghent.
  • Basu, Tathagata, Einbeck, Jochen, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Forbes, Alistair (2019), Robust uncertainty quantification for measurement problems with limited information, ISIPTA'19. Ghent.
  • Bains, Henna, Kazemtabrizi, Behzad, Madariaga, Ander & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2019), Using interval dominance and Gamma-maximin for decision making in offshore power transmission, ISIPTA 2019: the 11th international symposium on imprecise probabilities ISIPTA'19. Ghent
  • Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Kelly, Dana (2011), Common-cause failure in wind turbines: an initial analysis, in Coolen, Frank, de Cooman, Gert, Fetz, Thomas & Oberguggenberger, Michael eds, Abstracts of Poster Only Presentations 7th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Innsbruck, SIPTA, 33-33.

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Media Contacts

Available for media contact about:

  • Statistics: I look at problems where too little information is available to apply traditional statistical methods succesfully, and how we still can make decisions based on the really available information.

Supervises