Publication detailsShachat, J., Swarthout, J. & Wei, L. (2015). A Hidden Markov Model for the Detection of Pure and Mixed Strategy Play in Games. Econometric Theory 31(04): 729-752.
- Publication type: Journal Article
- ISSN/ISBN: 0266-4666, 1469-4360
- DOI: 10.1017/S026646661400053X
- Further publication details on publisher web site
- Durham Research Online (DRO) - may include full text
Author(s) from Durham
We propose a statistical model to assess whether individuals strategically use mixed strategies in repeated games. We formulate a hidden Markov model in which the latent state space contains both pure and mixed strategies. We apply the model to data from an experiment in which human subjects repeatedly play a normal form game against a computer that always follows its part of the unique mixed strategy Nash equilibrium profile. Estimated results show significant mixed strategy play and nonstationary dynamics. We also explore the ability of the model to forecast action choice.