Publication detailsAntoniou, C., Harrison, G.W., Lau, M.I. & Read, D. (2015). Subjective bayesian beliefs. Journal of risk and uncertainty 50(1): 35-54.
- Publication type: Journal Article
- ISSN/ISBN: 0895-5646, 1573-0476
- DOI: 10.1007/s11166-015-9208-5
- Keywords: Bayes’ Rule, Subjective beliefs, Learning, D03, D81, D83.
- Further publication details on publisher web site
- Durham Research Online (DRO) - may include full text
Author(s) from Durham
A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimental economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule.