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Durham University

Research & business

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Publication details

Antoniou, C., Harrison, G.W., Lau, M.I. & Read, D. (2015). Subjective bayesian beliefs. Journal of risk and uncertainty 50(1): 35-54.

Author(s) from Durham


A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimental economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule.