Publication details

Forlin, P., Gerrard, C. M. & Petley, D. (2016). Exploring representativeness and reliability for late medieval earthquakes in Europe. Natural Hazards 84(3): 1625-1636.

• Publication type: Journal Article
• ISSN/ISBN: 0921-030X, 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2502-y
• Further publication details on publisher web site
• Durham Research Online (DRO) - may include full text

Author(s) from Durham

• Professor Chris Gerrard
• Dr Paolo Forlin

Abstract

Seismic catalogues of past earthquakes have compiled a substantial amount of information about historical seismicity for Europe and the Mediterranean. Using two of the most recent European seismic databases (AHEAD and EMEC), this paper employs GIS spatial analysis (kernel density estimation) to explore the representativeness and reliability of data captured for late medieval earthquakes. We identify those regions where the occurrence of earthquakes is significantly higher or lower than expected values and investigate possible reasons for these discrepancies. The nature of the seismic events themselves, the methodology employed during catalogue compilation and the availability of medieval written records are all briefly explored.