We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. You can change your cookie settings at any time. Otherwise, we'll assume you're OK to continue.

Durham University

Research & business

View Profile

Publication details for Professor Nick Vivyan

Hanretty, Chris, Lauderdale, Benjamin E. & Vivyan, Nick (2016). Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting. Electoral Studies 41: 239-243.

Author(s) from Durham


We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.