Publication details for Professor Nick VivyanHanretty, Chris, Lauderdale, Benjamin E. & Vivyan, Nick (2016). Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting. Electoral Studies 41: 239-243.
- Publication type: Journal Article
- ISSN/ISBN: 0261-3794
- DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019
- Keywords: National polling, Constituency polling, Uniform swing, Generalized normal swing.
- Further publication details on publisher web site
- Durham Research Online (DRO) - may include full text
Author(s) from Durham
We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.