PSRU Papers and Briefings
Briefing Paper 73:
'The Emergence of Islamic State in Pakistan' (14/10/2015) - Simon Ross Valentine
The Islamic State (al-Dawla al-Islamiyya, IS), also known as ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham); ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) or Da’esh (Islamic Nation of Iraq and Al-Sham), has, according to FBI Director James Comey, become the greatest international terrorist threat, surpassing al-Qaeda in terms of influence and activity.2 Having gained control of large swathes of Iraq and Syria, the IS has openly proclaimed its aim of establishing a world-wide Caliphate, characterised by the implementation of a strict Wahhabi-Salafi interpretation of Shariah. Having the support of affiliated groups, and individual "lone-wolf activists", the IS has carried out terrorist activities in various countries including Nigeria, Egypt and Tunisia. Extremely wealthy, disciplined and well organised the IS, possessing a first rate propaganda apparatus, has been successful in recruiting jihadi fighters – both men and women – from around the world. Despite air strikes by a US led coalition the IS has proven to be highly resilient, achieving major military victories, and able to extend its influence overseas, inspiring terrorist acts in France, Belgium, Tunisia and elsewhere. This article, after briefly explaining the history, beliefs and ideology of the IS considers the presence of the IS in Pakistan and Afghanistan, countries vital for maintaining the geo-political stability of the South Asian region, yet nations already troubled by the rigours of militant Islam. Following an examination of the emergence of the IS in the Af-Pak region, consideration is given to relevant key issues: the nature of the rift that has emerged between al-Qaeda and the IS; the reasons why certain elements of the Pakistan Taliban have joined the IS while other Taliban groups are actively opposed to it; and the response so far by the Pakistani authorities to the menace of the IS ideology. The article concludes with suggestions for policy-makers and decision-makers relating to the seriousness or otherwise of the IS threat.
- Briefing Paper 73 (last modified: 6 April 2016)
Briefing Paper 72:
No Easy Walk to Democracy: Security, Politics and the State in Pakistan (14/05/2015) - Julian Richards and Chaudhry Miraj
The successful transition of government from one democratically elected regime to another in 2013 marked a first in Pakistan’s history, and offered a message of hope in the democratic development of the country. Subsequent civil protests spearheaded by Imran Khan’s PTI party, however, pose difficult questions about the constitutional and democratic development of a state such as Pakistan. Structural deficiencies in the state’s ability to deliver security, furthermore, temper optimism over Pakistan’s pathway towards full democracy, and show there is much yet to achieve.
- Briefing Paper 72 (last modified: 17 June 2015)
Briefing Paper 71:
Formal Institutionalization of Military Rule: The 21st Amendment in Pakistan (14/05/2015) - Siegfried O. Wolf
The first ‘regular’ transfer of power between two civilian governments in Pakistan manifested itself in the aftermath of the 2013 general elections. Many celebrated this shift as a positive sign of democratic consolidation. However, the appreciation of this allegedly ‘new democratic wave’ ignores the resilience of decade-old authoritarian, and anti-democratic patterns. The military still dominates all significant political decision-making processes. Furthermore, with the 21st constitutional amendment the soldiers were able to further entrench their formal role in the political-institutional setup. This seriously challenges the notions of civilian supremacy, which is unfortunate, since civilian control of the armed forces is a necessary constituent for democracy and democratic consolidation.
- Briefing Paper 71 (last modified: 17 June 2015)
Briefing Paper 70:
The Influence of Wahhabism in Pakistan (24/06/2014) - Simon Ross Valentine
In the last few years there have been repeated claims concerning the growing deleterious influence of Wahhabism in the Indian sub-continent and the support by the Saudi Arabian government of militancy, activities resulting in the introduction of extreme interpretations of Shariah; the Arabization of language and culture and the persecution of minority groups in various localities. After briefly explaining Wahhabism, its beliefs and ideology, this paper will consider the indoctrination and propaganda war allegedly undertaken by the Wahhabi Movement in Pakistan especially, as critics claim, through its use of "charities" and the madrassah system. Attention is given to Wahhabi opposition to Shi’ism and Sufism, particularly the veneration of pirs and al-awliya (holy men), and the cult of shrines, practices associated with the Sufi, Shia and Barelvi traditions. Tentative conclusions will be presented for further debate, principally the need for reform of the education system and for political accountability by the Pakistani government and elsewhere in acknowledging and preventing overseas funding of militancy within its borders.
- Briefing paper 70 (last modified: 16 July 2014)
Briefing Paper 69:
Just Another Carte Blanche? EU GSP Plus Status and Human Rights in Pakistan (20/06/2014) - Siegfred O. Wolf
The EU is considering offering Pakistan a Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP+) in trade which could have huge implications for the economic well-being of Pakistan. However this deal is tied to a package of human rights, labour rights, good governance and environment commitments. In the past Pakistan has signed up to such commitments but has failed to implement them (most starkly perhaps in relation to women’s rights and minority rights). This paper argues that the EU should seek to use the leverage of the GSP+ deal to ensure Pakistani compliance with, and implementation of, its obligations and should be willing to withdraw the deal if it does not. It cautions that the EU should not countenance a "carte blanche" in which Pakistan’s ruling elite reaps the rewards of EU trade liberalisation without any corresponding commitment – beyond lip service - to improve rights, governance, and environmental protection.
- Briefing paper 69 (last modified: 16 July 2014)
Briefing Paper 68:
'Nawaz Sharif and the Crisis of Political Authority in Pakistan' (22/07/2013) - David Schaefer
Despite his election victory and government majority, Nawaz Sharif’s time in office will be characterised by prolonged political instability. The threat to Pakistani democracy from the country’s powerful military establishment is receding under pressure from new social trends, but an empowered judiciary now presents another obstacle for effective governance. Pakistan’s democracy is plagued by a number of inter-related problems which can be traced to longstanding political dysfunction. Averting disaster will require the centralisation of political authority in the short term, not de-centralisation. Given the legacy of feudalism in Pakistani politics, this will not be an easy task: Sharif will have to tackle three issues – economy, energy, and insurgency – while successfully nurturing his political authority, and without triggering a backlash that could derail his government. Depending on his management of the politics of reform, this will probably involve poor relations with the judiciary or increasing unpopularity.
- Briefing Paper 68 PDF (last modified: 13 August 2013)
Research Paper 67:
'Illiberal Democrats and the Marginalisation of Religious Minorities in Pakistan' (10/05/2013) - Ajay K. Raina
The central argument of this paper is that the illiberal particularities of the politics of two of Pakistan’s greatest leaders – Muhammad Jinnah and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto – decisively shaped the emergence of an Islamic, constitutional, legal, political, and educational context in Pakistan in which religious minorities, not least Pakistan’s Christians, are marginalised and repressed. It argues that the means to address these problems are extremely limited, but that ways forward may be found in the detoxification of the public sector school’s curricula, and in the introduction of super-majority political arrangements in which minorities are more centrally placed within the electoral process.
- Research paper 67 (last modified: 29 May 2013)
Briefing Paper 66:
'The Siachen Glacier and Independent Arbitration' (01/05/2013) - Brian Cloughley
The success of India and Pakistan in reaching and subsequently observing the Rann of Kutch agreement in 1968 provides not only an important illustration of the value of negotiation over violence but also offers important insight into how a similar agreement to resolve the dispute over the Siachen Glacier might be reached to the benefit of both India and Pakistan. This briefing tracks the efforts of the two countries to resolve the Siachen dispute, and looks at the linkage of this dispute to other issues of contestation between India and Pakistan. The author tracks the development of his own thinking on the issue and suggests a face-saving way out for both parties based on demilitarisation and independent arbitration.
- Briefing Paper 66 (last modified: 29 May 2013)