Publication details for Prof Nancy CartwrightCartwright, N. (2012). Presidential Address: Will This Policy Work for You? Predicting Effectiveness Better: How Philosophy Helps. Philosophy of Science 79(5): 973-989.
- Publication type: Journal Article
- ISSN/ISBN: 0031-8248, 1539-767X
- DOI: 10.1086/668041
- Further publication details on publisher web site
- Durham Research Online (DRO) - may include full text
Author(s) from Durham
There is a takeover movement fast gaining influence in development economics, a movement that demands that predictions about development outcomes be based on randomized controlled trials. The problem it takes up—of using evidence of efficacy from good studies to predict whether a policy will be effective if we implement it—is a general one, and affects us all. My discussion is the result of a long struggle to develop the right concepts to deal with the problem of warranting effectiveness predictions. Whether I have it right or not, these are questions of vast social importance that philosophers of science can, and should, help answer.