Publication details for Michael GoldsteinGoldstein, Michael (2001). Avoiding foregone conclusions: geometric and foundational analysis of paradoxes of finite additivity. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 94(1): 73-87.
- Publication type: Journal Article
- ISSN/ISBN: 0378-3758
- DOI: 10.1016/S0378-3758(00)00229-9
- Keywords: Finite additivity; Geometric conditioning; Temporal coherence; Value of information
- Further publication details on publisher web site
- Durham Research Online (DRO) - may include full text
Author(s) from Durham
We consider an example in which the use of finitely additive probabilities leads to the seemingly paradoxical conclusion that we may reason to a foregone conclusion. We give an informal treatment of this paradox. We then develop a geometric approach which formalises this treatment, and offers a foundational resolution of the problem. We discuss this approach both in the context of assessing the value of such paradoxical data and also when used for finite approximation.