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Department of Mathematical Sciences

Staff

Publication details for Matthias Troffaes

Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Blake, Simon (2013), A Robust Data Driven Approach to Quantifying Common-Cause Failure in Power Networks, in Cozman, Fabio, Denoeux, Thierry, Destercke, Sebastien & Seidenfeld, Teddy eds, ISIPTA'13: Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Compiegne, France, SIPTA, Compiegne, 311-317.

Author(s) from Durham

Abstract

The standard alpha-factor model for common cause failure assumes symmetry, in that all components must have identical failure rates. In this paper, we generalise the alpha-factor model to deal with asymmetry, in order to apply the model to power networks, which are typically asymmetric. For parameter estimation, we propose a set of conjugate Dirichlet-Gamma priors, and we discuss how posterior bounds can be obtained. Finally, we demonstrate our methodology on a simple yet realistic example.