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Department of Mathematical Sciences

Staff

Publication details for Dr Matthias Troffaes

De Cooman, Gert & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2004). Coherent lower previsions in systems modelling: products and aggregation rules. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 85(1-3): 113-134.
  • Publication type: Journal papers: academic
  • ISSN/ISBN: 0951-8320
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2004.03.007
  • Keywords: Expert information; Coherent lower previsions; Natural extension; Independence; Type-I product; Marginal extension; Conjunction; Disjunction
  • View online: Online version
  • Durham research online: DRO record

Author(s) from Durham

Abstract

We discuss why coherent lower previsions provide a good uncertainty model for solving generic uncertainty problems involving possibly conflicting expert information. We study various ways of combining expert assessments on different domains, such as natural extension, independent natural extension and the type-I product, as well as on common domains, such as conjunction and disjunction. We provide each of these with a clear interpretation, and we study how they are related. Observing that in combining expert assessments no information is available about the order in which they should be combined, we suggest that the final result should be independent of the order of combination. The rules of combination we study here satisfy this requirement.