Staff profile

Current research

My main research interests are in Bayesian approaches to modelling and uncertainty quantification. I am mostly interested in the development and implementation of models and the design of emulators (statistical representations) for large complex systems such as health, climate, and population dynamics. My current research is focused on multi-model uncertainty looking at frameworks for assimilating multiple models and experts’ beliefs, the aim of these frameworks is to unify multiple uncertainty specifications and provide an accessible decision support mechanism. This approach is essential when studying systems such as health where fast and reliable tools are necessary to aid decision making or such as climate where different modeling approaches are used by experts in different areas to inform policy makers. My current collaborations involve the development of Bayesian methods and their application to a number of areas including health, engineering, societal dynamics, climate, seismology, and banking. Most of these partnerships are generating substantial outputs with current and eminent impact in the local industry and society.

• Bayesian Statistics
• Parametric Inference
• Information Theory
• Stochastic Processes

Authored book

• Bissell, J., Caiado, C., Curtis, S., Goldstein, M., & Straughan, B. (2015). Tipping Points: Modelling Social Problems and Health. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118992005

Chapter in book

• Bentley, R., Caiado, C., & Ormerod, P. Complexity in Spatial Dynamics: The Emergence of Homogeneity/Heterogeneity in Culture in Cities. In J. Bissell, C. Caiado, S. Curtis, M. Goldstein, & B. Straughan (Eds.), Tipping Points: Modelling Social Problems an Health. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118992005.ch8
• Caiado, C., Hickey, G., Grant, S., Goldstein, M., Markarian, G., McCollum, C., & Bridgewater, B. (2015). Heart Online Uncertainty and Stability Estimation. In J. Bissell, C. Caiado, S. Curtis, M. Goldstein, & B. Straughan (Eds.), Tipping Points: Modelling Social Problems an Health. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118992005.ch5
• Hickey, G., Grant, S., Caiado, C., Buchan, I., & Bridgewater, B. (2015). Cardiac Surgery Performance Monitoring. In J. Bissell, C. Caiado, S. Curtis, M. Goldstein, & B. Straughan (Eds.), Tipping Points: Modelling Social Problems an Health. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118992005.ch4
• Caiado, C. (2015). Stochastic Modelling for Compartmental Systems Applied to Social Problems. In J. Bissell, C. Caiado, S. Curtis, M. Goldstein, & B. Straughan (Eds.), Tipping Points: Modelling Social Problems an Health. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118992005.ch2

Conference Paper

• Formentin, H. N., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., Caiado, C., Avansi, G., & Schiozer, D. (2020). Accounting for Model Discrepancy in Uncertainty Analysis by Combining Numerical Simulation and Bayesian Emulation Techniques. . https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.202035095
• Nakharutai, N., Troffaes, M. C., & Caiado, C. C. (2017). Efficient algorithms for checking avoiding sure loss. In A. Antonucci, G. Corani, I. Couso, & S. Destercke (Eds.), Proceedings of the Tenth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability : Theories and Applications, 10-14 July 2017, Lugano (Switzerland) (241-252)
• Rathie, P., Swamee, P., & Caiado, C. (2008). A two parameter skew distribution function.
• Rathie, P., Caiado, C., & Swamee, P. (2008). New intensity functions in hydraulic repairable systems.
• Caiado, C., & Rathie, P. (2007). Polynomial Coefficients and Distribution of the Sum of Discrete Uniform Variables. In M. A. M., P. M. A., J. K. K., & J. Joy (Eds.),
• Rathie, P., & Caiado, C. (2007). Repairable Systems in Reliability Theory.

Journal Article

• Garner, A., Lewis, J., Dixon, S., Preston, N., Caiado, C. C. S., Hanratty, B., …Mason, S. M. (2024). The impact of digital technology in care homes on unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs. Age and Ageing, 53(2), 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afae004
• Brotherhood, K., Searle, B., Spiers, G. F., Caiado, C., & Hanratty, B. (2023). Variations in older people's emergency care use by social care setting: a systematic review of international evidence. British Medical Bulletin, Article ldad033. https://doi.org/10.1093/bmb/ldad033
• Jones, L. F., Batteux, E., Bonfield, S., Bhogal, J. K., Taylor, J., Caiado, C., …Weston, D. (2021). Durham University students’ experiences of asymptomatic COVID-19 testing: a qualitative study. BMJ Open, 11(12), https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-055644
• Nakharutai, N., Troffaes, M. C., & Caiado, C. C. (2021). Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for Γ-maximin, Γ-maximax and interval dominance. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning: Uncertainty in Intelligent Systems, 133, 95-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2021.03.005
• Badham, J., Barbrook-Johnson, P., Caiado, C., & Castellani, B. (2021). Justified Stories with Agent-Based Modelling for Local COVID-19 Planning. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 24(1), Article 8. https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4532
• Howitt, S. H., Oakley, J., Caiado, C., Goldstein, M., Malagon, I., McCollum, C., & Grant, S. W. (2020). A Novel Patient-Specific Model for Predicting Severe Oliguria; Development and Comparison With Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes Acute Kidney Injury Classification. Critical Care Medicine, 48(1), e18-e25. https://doi.org/10.1097/ccm.0000000000004074
• Nakharutai, N., Troffaes, M. C., & Caiado, C. (2019). Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for decision making with lower previsions. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning: Uncertainty in Intelligent Systems, 113, 91-105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2019.06.008
• Nakharutai, N., Caiado, C. C., & Troffaes, M. C. (2019). Evaluating betting odds and free coupons using desirability. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning: Uncertainty in Intelligent Systems, 106, 128-145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2019.01.002
• Li, Y., Zhang, S., Hobbs, R., Caiado, C., Sproson, A., Selby, D., & Rooney, A. (2019). Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology. Science Bulletin, 64(3), 189-197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2018.12.019
• Formentin, H. N., Almeida, F. L. R., Avansi, G. D., Maschio, C., Schiozer, D. J., Caiado, C., …Goldstein, M. (2019). Gaining more understanding about reservoir behavior through assimilation of breakthrough time and productivity deviation in the history matching process. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 173, 1080-1096. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2018.10.045
• Ferreira, C., Vernon, I., Caiado, C., Formentin, H., Avansi, G., Goldstein, M., & Schiozer, D. (2019). Efficient Selection of Reservoir Model Outputs within an Emulation-Based Bayesian History Matching Uncertainty Analysis. SPE Journal, OTC-29801. https://doi.org/10.4043/29801-ms
• Nakharutai, N., Troffaes, M. C., & Caiado, C. C. (2018). Improved linear programming methods for checking avoiding sure loss. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning: Uncertainty in Intelligent Systems, 101, 293-310. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2018.07.013
• Howitt, S. H., Grant, S. W., Caiado, C., Carlson, E., Kwon, D., Dimarakis, I., …McCollum, C. (2018). The KDIGO acute kidney injury guidelines for cardiac surgery patients in critical care: a validation study. BMC Nephrology, 19(1), Article 149. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12882-018-0946-x
• Moreno, R., Avansi, G., Schiozer, D., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., & Caiado, C. (2018). Emulation of reservoir production forecast considering variation in petrophysical properties. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 165, 711-725. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2018.02.056
• Grant, S., Venkateswaran, R., Malagon, I., Goldstein, M., McCollum, C., Caiado, C., & Howitt, S. (2018). Validation of Three Postoperative Risk Prediction Models for Intensive Care Unit Mortality after Cardiac Surgery. Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgeon, 66(8), 651-660. https://doi.org/10.1055/s-0037-1608897
• Ormerod, P., & Caiado, C. C. (2017). Market Structure with Interacting Consumers. Review of behavioral economics, 4(1), 33-49. https://doi.org/10.1561/105.00000057
• Caiado, C., Brock, W., Bentley, R., & O'Brien, M. (2016). Fitness landscapes among many options under social influence. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 405, 5-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.12.013
• Tang, Q., Hobbs, R., Zheng, C., Biescas, B., & Caiado, C. (2016). Markov Chain Monte Carlo inversion of temperature and salinity structure of an internal solitary wave packet from marine seismic data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(6), 3692-3709. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc011810
• Bentley, R., Brock, W., Caiado, C., & O'Brien, M. (2016). Evaluating reproductive decisions as discrete choices under social influence. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 371(1692), Article 20150154. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0154
• Caiado, C., & Goldstein, M. (2015). Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex physical systems modelled by computer simulators with applications to tipping points. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 26(1-3), 123-136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2015.02.006
• Brock, W., Bentley, R., O'Brien, M., & Caiado, C. (2014). Estimating a Path through a Map of Decision Making. PLoS ONE, 9(11), Article e111022. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0111022
• Bentley, R., Maddison, E., Ranner, P., Bissell, J., Caiado, C., Bhatanacharoen, P., …Garnett, P. (2014). Social tipping points and Earth systems dynamics. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2, Article 35. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035
• Bentley, R., Caiado, C., & Ormerod, P. (2014). Effects of memory on spatial heterogeneity in neutrally transmitted culture. Evolution and Human Behavior, 35(4), 257-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2014.02.001
• Hickey, G., Grant, S., Caiado, C., Kendall, S., Dunning, J., Poullis, M., …Bridgewater, B. (2013). Dynamic prediction modeling approaches for cardiac surgery. Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes, 6(6), 649-658. https://doi.org/10.1161/circoutcomes.111.000012
• Caiado, C. C., Goldstein, M., & Hobbs, R. W. (2012). Bayesian Strategies to Assess Uncertainty in Velocity Models. Bayesian Analysis, 7(1), 211-234. https://doi.org/10.1214/12-ba707

Presentation

• Nakharutai, N., Troffaes, M. C., & Caiado, C. (2019, July). Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for decision making with lower previsions. Paper presented at ISIPTA 2019, Ghent, Belgium

Report

• Caiado, C., & Da-Silva, C. (2006). Bayesian Inference in Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes. [No known commissioning body]
• Caiado, C., & Rathie, P. (2005). Entropias e Índices Caudais. [No known commissioning body]
• Caiado, C., & Rathie, P. (2005). Multinomial triangle coefficient and distribution of the sum of discrete uniform variates. [No known commissioning body]
• Caiado, C., & Rathie, P. (2004). Birthday Problem e Generalizações (The Birthday Problem and Generalizations). [No known commissioning body]