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Durham University

Email and Telephone Directory

Staff Profile

Camila Caiado, BSc in Statistics, PhD in Mathematical Sciences Durham University

Associate Professor, Statistics in the Department of Mathematical Sciences
Telephone: +44 (0) 191 33 42561
Room number: CM321
Management Board Member in the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience

Contact Camila Caiado (email at

Current research

My main research interests are in Bayesian approaches to modelling and uncertainty quantification. I am mostly interested in the development and implementation of models and the design of emulators (statistical representations) for large complex systems such as health, climate, and population dynamics. My current research is focused on multi-model uncertainty looking at frameworks for assimilating multiple models and experts’ beliefs, the aim of these frameworks is to unify multiple uncertainty specifications and provide an accessible decision support mechanism. This approach is essential when studying systems such as health where fast and reliable tools are necessary to aid decision making or such as climate where different modeling approaches are used by experts in different areas to inform policy makers. My current collaborations involve the development of Bayesian methods and their application to a number of areas including health, engineering, societal dynamics, climate, seismology, and banking. Most of these partnerships are generating substantial outputs with current and eminent impact in the local industry and society.

Research Groups

Department of Mathematical Sciences

  • Probability & Statistics: Statistics
  • Probability and Statistics

Research Interests

  • Bayesian Statistics
  • Parametric Inference
  • Information Theory
  • Stochastic Processes

Selected Publications

Show all publications


Selected Grants

  • 2020: Early Warning Scores (£30000.00 from )
  • 2020: Intensive Care Risk Identification System (£40000.00 from )
  • 2019: Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Qualification in Machine Learning Algorithms (£35066.00 from Atom Bank)
  • 2019: Emergency Warning Signs Project (£3758.33 from AHSN)
  • 2018: KTP - ATOM Bank (£184015.00 from Atom Bank)
  • 2018: NERC Indonesia - Java Flood One (£15555.74 from Natural Environmental Research Council)
  • 2017: Bayesian Optimisation of X-Ray Materials Characterisation Phase VII - Further Applications to Medical Imaging (£11154.00 from )
  • 2017: Healthy New Towns - Predictive Modelling (£7456.00 from )
  • 2016: Bayesian Optimisation of Xray Materials Characterisation phase V1 Applications to Health (£20000.00 from IBEX Innovations)
  • 2016: Connected Health Cities (£147406.76 from Department of Health)
  • 2016: KTP Atom Bank (£279172.00 from Atom Bank)
  • 2016: The Intensive care risk identification system (£122850.00 from )
  • 2015: Bayesian optimisation of X-ray Materials Characterisation - phase V (£10000.00 from Ibex Innovations Ltd)
  • 2015: Doctoral Programs and Post-doctoral positions sponsored by CNPQ and BG E&P LTDA (£531275.00 from )
  • 2015: Predictor Feasibility Study (£23810.00 from Innovate UK)
  • 2013: Bayesian optimisation of X-ray materials characterisation phase III (£21526.00 from Ibex Innovations Ltd)