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Durham University

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Staff Profile

Peter Craig, BA (Mod.) in Mathematics, PhD in Statistics Trinity College Dublin

Personal web page

Chair Board of Examiners, Professor, Statistics in the Department of Mathematical Sciences
Telephone: +44 (0) 191 33 43076
Room number: CM314

(email at p.s.craig@durham.ac.uk)

Research Groups

Department of Mathematical Sciences

  • Probability & Statistics: Statistics
  • Probability and Statistics

Research Interests

  • Bayesian statistics: foundations, methodology, computation and applications
  • Uncertainty quantification
  • Ecotoxicology: statistical methods
  • Risk assessment: food safety and related environmental aspects
  • Statistical methodology: exact tests, random effects models

Publications

Chapter in book

  • Craig, P.S., Goldstein, M., Seheult, A.H. & Smith, J.A. (1997). Pressure matching for hydrocarbon reservoirs: a case in the use of Bayes linear strategies for large computer experiments (and discussion). In Case studies in Bayesian Statistics. Gatsonis et al New York: Springer-Verlag. III: 37-93.
  • Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Seheult, A. H. & Smith, J. A. (1996). Bayes linear strategies for matching hydrocarbon reservoir history. In Bayesian Statistics 5. Bernardo, J. M. et al. Clarendon Press. 69-95.

Journal Article

  • Craig, Peter S, Dujardin, Bruno, Hart, Andy, Hernández‐Jerez, Antonio F, Hougaard Bennekou, Susanne, Kneuer, Carsten, Ossendorp, Bernadette, Pedersen, Ragnor, Wolterink, Gerrit & Mohimont, Luc (2020). Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have acute effects on the nervous system. EFSA Journal 18(4): e06087.
  • Craig, Peter S, Dujardin, Bruno, Hart, Andy, Hernandez‐Jerez, Antonio F, Hougaard Bennekou, Susanne, Kneuer, Carsten, Ossendorp, Bernadette, Pedersen, Ragnor, Wolterink, Gerrit & Mohimont, Luc (2020). Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid. EFSA Journal 18(4): e06088.
  • Kneuer, Carsten, Charistou, Agathi, Craig, Peter, Eleftheriadou, Dimitra, Engel, Nadine, Kjaerstad, Mia, Krishnan, Shaji, Laskari, Vasileia, Machera, Kyriaki, Nikolopoulou, Dimitra, Pieper, Christina, Schoen, Eric, Spilioti, Eliana & Buist, Harrie (2018). Applicability of in silico tools for the prediction of dermal absorption for pesticides. EFSA Supporting Publications 15(10): 1493E.
  • Marques da Silva Júnior, Antonio Hermes, Einbeck, Jochen & Craig, Peter S. (2018). Fisher information under Gaussian quadrature models. Statistica Neerlandica 72(2): 74-89.
  • Benford, Diane, Halldorsson, Thorhallur, Jeger, Michael John, Knutsen, Helle Katrine, More, Simon, Naegeli, Hanspeter, Noteborn, Hubert, Ockleford, Colin, Ricci, Antonia, Rychen, Guido, Schlatter, Josef R, Silano, Vittorio, Solecki, Roland, Turck, Dominique, Younes, Maged, Craig, Peter, Hart, Andrew, Von Goetz, Natalie, Koutsoumanis, Kostas, Mortensen, Alicja, Ossendorp, Bernadette, Martino, Laura, Merten, Caroline, Mosbach‐Schulz, Olaf & Hardy, Anthony (2018). Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments. EFSA Journal 16(1): e05123.
  • Benford, Diane, Halldorsson, Thorhallur, Jeger, Michael John, Knutsen, Helle Katrine, More, Simon, Naegeli, Hanspeter, Noteborn, Hubert, Ockleford, Colin, Ricci, Antonia, Rychen, Guido, Schlatter, Josef R, Silano, Vittorio, Solecki, Roland, Turck, Dominique, Younes, Maged, Craig, Peter, Hart, Andrew, Von Goetz, Natalie, Koutsoumanis, Kostas, Mortensen, Alicja, Ossendorp, Bernadette, Germini, Andrea, Martino, Laura, Merten, Caroline, Mosbach‐Schulz, Olaf, Smith, Anthony & Hardy, Anthony (2018). The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment. EFSA Journal 16(1): e05122.
  • Belanger, Scott, Barron, Mace, Craig, Peter, Dyer, Scott, Galay-Burgos, Malyka, Hamer, Mick, Marshall, Stuart, Posthuma, Leo, Raimondo, Sandy & Whitehouse, Paul (2017). Future needs and recommendations in the development of species sensitivity distributions: Estimating toxicity thresholds for aquatic ecological communities and assessing impacts of chemical exposures. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 13(4): 664-674.
  • Buist, Harrie, Craig, Peter, Dewhurst, Ian, Hougaard Bennekou, Susanne, Kneuer, Carsten, Machera, Kyriaki, Pieper, Christina, Court Marques, Daniele, Guillot, Gilles, Ruffo, Federica & Chiusolo, Arianna (2017). Guidance on dermal absorption. EFSA Journal 15(6): e04873.
  • Hardy, Anthony, Benford, Diane, Halldorsson, Thorhallur, Jeger, Michael John, Knutsen, Helle Katrine, More, Simon, Naegeli, Hanspeter, Noteborn, Hubert, Ockleford, Colin, Ricci, Antonia, Rychen, Guido, Schlatter, Josef R, Silano, Vittorio, Solecki, Roland, Turck, Dominique, Benfenati, Emilio, Chaudhry, Qasim Mohammad, Craig, Peter, Frampton, Geoff, Greiner, Matthias, Hart, Andrew, Hogstrand, Christer, Lambre, Claude, Luttik, Robert, Makowski, David, Siani, Alfonso, Wahlstroem, Helene, Aguilera, Jaime, Dorne, Jean‐Lou, Fernandez Dumont, Antonio, Hempen, Michaela, Valtueña Martínez, Silvia, Martino, Laura, Smeraldi, Camilla, Terron, Andrea, Georgiadis, Nikolaos & Younes, Maged (2017). Guidance on the use of the weight of evidence approach in scientific assessments. EFSA Journal 15(8): e04971.
  • Ockleford, Colin, Adriaanse, Paulien, Berny, Philippe, Brock, Theodorus, Duquesne, Sabine, Grilli, Sandro, Hernandez‐Jerez, Antonio F., Bennekou, Susanne Hougaard, Klein, Michael, Kuhl, Thomas, Laskowski, Ryszard, Machera, Kyriaki, Pelkonen, Olavi, Pieper, Silvia, Stemmer, Michael, Sundh, Ingvar, Teodorovic, Ivana, Tiktak, Aaldrik, Topping, Chris J., Wolterink, Gerrit, Craig, Peter, de Jong, Frank, Manachini, Barbara, Sousa, Paulo, Swarowsky, Klaus, Auteri, Domenica, Arena, Maria & Rob, Smith (2017). Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for in-soil organisms. EFSA Journal 15(2): e04690.
  • Oughton, Rachel H. & Craig, Peter S. (2016). Hierarchical Emulation: a method for modeling and comparing nested simulators. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification 4(1): 495-519.
  • Aagaard, A., Brock, T., Capri, E., Duquesne, S., Filipic, M., Hernandez-Jerez, A.F., Hirsch-Ernst, K.I., Hougaard Bennekou, S., Klein, M., Kuhl, T., Laskowski, R., Liess, M., Mantovani, A., Ockleford, C., Ossendorp, B., Pickford, D., Smith, R., Sousa, P., Sundh, I., Tiktak, A., Van Der Linden, T., Craig, P., de Jong, F., Manachini, B., Pieper, S., Swarowsky, K., Topping, C.J. & Streissl, F. (2015). Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for non-target arthropods. EFSA Journal 13(2): 3996.
  • Topping, Chris J., Craig, Peter S., de Jong, Frank, Klein, Michael, Laskowski, Ryszard, Manachini, Barbara, Pieper, Silvia, Smith, Rob, Sousa, José Paulo, Streissl, Franz, Swarowsky, Klaus, Tiktak, Aaldrik & van der Linden, Ton (2015). Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides. Science of The Total Environment 537: 159-169.
  • Boothroyd, L.G., Craig, P.S., Crossman, R.J. & Perrett, D.I. (2013). Father absence and age at first birth in a western sample. American Journal of Human Biology 25(3): 366–369.
  • Boobis, Alan, Flari, Villie, Gosling, John Paul, Hart, Andy, Craig, Peter, Rushton, Lesley & Idahosa-Taylor, Ehi (2013). Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens – Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures. Food and Chemical Toxicology 57: 106-118.
  • Hickey, GL & Craig, PS (2012). Competing statistical methods for the fitting of normal species sensitivity distributions recommendations for practitioners. Risk analysis 32(7): 1232-1243.
  • Hickey, GL, Craig, PS, Luttik, R & De Zwart, D (2012). On the quantification of intertest variability in ecotoxicity data with application to species sensitivity distributions. Environmental toxicology and chemistry 31(8): 1903-1910.
  • Craig, Peter S., Hickey, Graeme L., Luttik, Robert & Hart, Andy (2012). Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in society 175(1): 243-262.
  • Luttik, Robert, Hart, Andy, Roelofs, Willem, Craig, Peter & Mineau, Pierre (2011). Variation in the level of protection afforded to birds and crustaceans exposed to different pesticides under standard risk assessment procedures. Integrated environmental assessment and management 7(3): 459-465.
  • Hickey, Graeme L., Craig, Peter S. & Hart, Andy. (2009). On the application of loss functions in determining assessment factors for ecological risk. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety 72(2): 293-300.
  • Hickey, Graeme L., Kefford, Ben J., Dunlop, Jason E. & Craig, Peter S. (2008). Making Species Salinity Sensitivity Distributions Reflective of Naturally Occurring Communities: Using Rapid Testing and Bayesian Statistics. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 27(11): 2403-2411.
  • Craig, Peter (2007). A new reconstruction of multivariate normal orthant probabilities. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology) 70(1): 227-243.
  • Craig, P. S., Goldstein, M., Rougier, J. C. & Seheult, A. H. (2001). Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators. Journal of the American Statistical Association 96(454): 717-729.
  • Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Seheult, A. H. & Smith, J. A. (1998). Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D - The Statistician 47(1): 37-53.
  • Craig, P.S., Hall, R.M., Siney, P., Unsworth, A. & Wroblewski, B.M. (1998). Discrepancy between penetration depths deprived from radiographic and direct measurement of acetabular components. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers- Part H 212: 57-64.
  • Craig, P. & Diffey, B. L. (1997). A prospective longitudinal study of the outdoor behaviour and symptoms of photosensitive patients. British Journal of Dermatology 137: 391-394.
  • Craig P & A.H. Seheult (1996). Pseudo-likelihood estimation for a class of spatial Markov chains. Statistics and Computing 6: 303-311.

Conference Paper

  • da Silva-Junior, A.H.M., Einbeck, J. & Craig, P.S. (2016), Gradient test for generalised linear models with random effects, in Dupuy, J.F. & Josse, J. eds, I: International Workshop on Statistical Modelling. Rennes, France, Statistical Modelling Society, 213-218.

Conference Proceeding

  • Craig, Peter S. (2006). Uncertainty factors in ecotoxicological risk management. 4th Edinburgh Risk Conference, Edinburgh, UK.
  • Craig, P.S., Smith, J.A., Goldstein, M. & Seheult, A.H. (1995). Matching hydrocarbon reservoir history - a Bayes linear approach. Third International Applied Statistics in Industry Conference.

Doctoral Thesis

  • Craig, Peter S. (1988). Time Series Analysis for Directional Data. Statistics. University of Dublin, Trinity College. PhD: 1-165.

Other (Print)

  • Craig, P.S. (2001). Discussion of paper by Kennedy and O'Hagan. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B 63: 455-456.
  • Craig, P.S., Hall, R.M., Unsworth, A., Hardaker, C., Siney, P. & Wroblewski, B.M. (1995). Measurement of Wear in Retrieved Acetabular Sockets. Proc. Inst. Mech. Engrs. Part H 209: 233-242.
  • Craig, P.S., Quinn, A., Diffey, B. & Farr, P. (1994). Definition of the Minimal Erythema Dose Used for Diagnostic Phototesting. British Journal of Dermatology 31: 56.

Report

  • Craig, Peter S. (2013). Exploring Novel Ways of Using Species Sensitivity Distributions to Establish PNECs for Industrial Chemicals, final report to steering group of project funded by Statoil and Unilever.
  • Craig, Peter. (2008). Consequences of Increasing the Number of Species Tested - Appendix 7 to EFSA Opinion on the Science behind the Guidance Document on Risk Assessment for Birds and Mammals. EFSA Journal.
  • EFSA PPR Panel (2007). Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from the Commission on acute dietary intake assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables. EFSA Journal, EFSA.
  • Craig, Peter (2006). Mathematical and statistical basis of options for risk calculations - Appendix to EFSA Opinion on possibility of lowering uncertainty factors if additional species used in assessment of acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms. Parma, Italy, European Food Safety Authority.
  • Barcelo Culleres, D, Black, R, Boesten, J, Boobis, A, Hardy, A, Hart, A, Koepp, H, Luttik, R, Machera, K, Maroni, M, McGregor, D, Meyer, O, Moretto, A, Papadopoulou-Mourkidou, E, Petzinger, E, Savolainen, K, Schaeffer, A, Stenström, J, Steurbaut, W, Tsipi-Stefanitsi, D, Vleminckx, C, Aldenberg, T, Craig, Peter, Forbes, V & Roelofs, W (2006). Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from EFSA related to the assessment of the acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms with regard to the possibility of lowering the uncertainty factor if additional species were tested. And Appendix: Mathematical and statistical basis of options for risk calculations (section 5 of the opinion). Parma, Italy, European Food Safety Authority.
  • Barcelo Culleres, D, Black, R, Boesten, J, Boobis, A, Hardy, A, Hart, A, Koepp, H, Luttik, R, Machera, K, Maroni, M, McGregor, D, Meyer, O, Moretto, A, Papadopoulou-Mourkidou, E, Petzinger, E, Savolainen, K, Schaeffer, A, Stenström, J, Steurbaut, W, Tsipi-Stefanitsi, D, Vleminckx, C, Ambrus A,, Craig, Peter, Suszter, G & Walters, E (2005). Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from Commission related to the appropriate variability factor(s) to be used for acute dietary exposure assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables. Parma, Italy, European Food Safety Authority.

Media Contacts

Available for media contact about:

  • Statistics: Statistics
  • Wildlife: Ecological and dietary risk from pesticide residues
  • Public policy, health and well-being: Ecological and dietary risk from pesticide residues
  • Statistics: Ecological and dietary risk from pesticide residues
  • Science: Education, industry & the community: Ecological and dietary risk from pesticide residues

Supervises