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on Modeling Climate Policies: A Critical Look at Integrated Assessment Models
Prof Mathias Frisch University of Maryland will deliver this public lecture asking, How do we bridge the gap between climate models and policy decisions?
One influential answer is to use cost-benefit analysis and so-called optimization integrated assessment models (IAMs) to determine what policy maximizes intergenerational welfare. I argue that optimization IAMs are subject to ‘deep’ uncertainties, which undermine the legitimacy of cost-benefit approaches to climate policy. While some of these uncertainties are inherited from those infecting climate models, others are peculiar to optimization IAMs. In particular, optimization IAMs face a problem of induction in that they have to rely on (sparse) data concerning economic impacts in one temperature domain to make predictions for another temperature domain for which we do not (yet) have any data. I compare this problem with the problem of making “out of sample predictions” discussed in the climate modeling literature and argue that strategies available in the case of climate models for limiting the uncertainties are not available in the case of economic impact models. I conclude by suggesting that we treat climate predictions as a situation of imprecise beliefs and briefly examine the policy decision problem from that perspective. Refreshments provided. Please confirm attendance by contacting the Centre Administrator at n.j.craigs@durham.ac.uk
Contact n.j.craigs@durham.ac.uk for more information about this event.
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