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UID:DUEVENT12433
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DTSTAMP:20130524T224319Z
DTSTART:20121017T143000Z
DTEND:20121017T160000Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
TRANSP:OPAQUE
LOCATION:Classroom E, Economics Department, Old Elvet, Durham
SUMMARY:Professor Stephen Millard, Bank of England and Durham Business Sch
 ool: Oil shocks and the UK economy: the changing nature of shocks and impa
 ct over time
DESCRIPTION:In this paper we examine how the impact of oil price movements
  on the UK economy differs depending on the underlying source of the shock
 , that is, whether the oil price has been driven by a supply, or demand, d
 isturbance. In addition we employ an empirical framework with time-va
 rying parameters to allow us to see how the impact of oil price shocks may
  have developed over time.  In line with earlier studies on larger ec
 onomies, we find that that the source of the shock does indeed affect the 
 size and nature of the eventual impact on the UK economy.  Oil supply
  shocks typically lead to larger negative impacts on output and slightly h
 igher increases in inflation relative to oil shocks stemming from shocks t
 o world demand, which typically have smaller and largely positive, impacts
  on UK output.  We find evidence that the nature of shocks in the wor
 ld oil market has changed over time, with the oil price becoming more sens
 itive to changes in oil production.  There is also evidence that the 
 impact of oil shocks became much smaller from the mid-1980s onwards, altho
 ugh the impact has risen slightly since around 2004. Research seminar orga
 nised by the Centre for Economic Growth and Policy.
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