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Latest research news
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Parents should be allowed to make informed choices over infant bed-sharing, says child sleep expert
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Brain frontal lobes not sole centre of human intelligence
Human intelligence cannot be explained by the size of the brain’s frontal lobes, say researchers.
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Museum find proves exotic ‘big cat’ prowled British countryside a century ago
The rediscovery of a mystery animal in a museum’s underground storeroom proves that a non-native ‘big cat’ prowled the British countryside at the turn of the last century.
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New fracking research led by Durham University finds it is “not significant” in causing earthquakes
A new study of hundreds of thousands of hydraulic fracturing (or “fracking”) operations has found that the process has only caused earth tremors that could be felt on the surface in three cases.
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Forthcoming research seminars
G. Chevillon (Essex Business School) and S. Mavroeidis (University of Oxford): Learning generates Long Memory
Abstract: We consider a prototypical representative-agent forward-looking model, and study the low frequency variability of the data when the agent's beliefs about the model are updated through linear learning algorithms.
We find that learning in this context can generate strong persistence. The degree of persistence depends on the weights agents place on past observations when they update their beliefs, and on the magnitude of the feedback from expectations to the endogenous variable. When the learning algorithm is recursive least squares, long memory arises when the coefficient on expectations is sufficiently large. In algorithms with discounting, long memory provides a very good approximation to the low-frequency variability of the data. Hence long memory arises endogenously, due to the self-referential nature of the model, without any persistence in the exogenous shocks. This is distinctly different from the case of rational expectations, where the memory of the endogenous variable is determined exogenously. Finally, this property of learning is used to shed light on some well-known empirical puzzles.
An Economics and Finance research seminar organised by CEGAP.
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