News

Europe’s birds face crisis unless we tackle climate change, says new report

(15 January 2008)

A landmark advance in our understanding of the potential impacts of human-induced climate change on wildlife has been published today [Tuesday 15 January].

A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds, co-authored by three Durham University academics, maps potential changes in distribution of all of the continent’s regularly occurring nesting birds. The atlas, co-written by Professor Brian Huntley, Dr Yvonne Collingham and Dr Steve Willis alongside Professor Rhys Green of the RSPB, shows that we need urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions, and redouble our efforts for nature conservation, if we are to avoid calamitous impacts on birds. It suggests that for the average bird species the potential distribution by the end of this century will shift nearly 550 km north east, equivalent to the distance from Plymouth to Newcastle. The average bird’s distribution will also be reduced in size by a fifth and overlap the current range by only 40 per cent. Alarmingly, the atlas shows that three quarters of all of Europe's nesting bird species are likely to suffer declines in range. This potentially disastrous vision for the future of wildlife, which could set some species on a path to extinction, has hastened calls by the RSPB for urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions and to help wildlife adapt to a rapidly warming world. The estimates used in the atlas are based upon a model of climatic change which projects an increase of global average temperature of about three degrees Centigrade since pre-industrial times. The RSPB regards any rise above two degrees Centigrade as disastrous for wildlife and mankind. Professor Brian Huntley, of Durham University, said: “Although the details both of future climatic changes and of species’ responses to these changes remain uncertain, the potential magnitude of both is clear, and is such that the adaptation measures necessary to conserve European biodiversity only can be achieved through urgent international action.” If the potential changes happen some species, including black-throated diver, snow bunting, capercaillie and dotterel, could be left with few areas of suitable climate in the UK. Without action to protect their populations now, and to ensure that they can find suitable habitat in future, this could significantly increase their risk of extinction. It is imperative that efforts are increased to look after existing protected areas and to extend their coverage in the future to accommodate changes in potential distributions. Unfortunately, the atlas shows that for some birds confined to Europe, such as the Scottish crossbill and azure-winged magpie, there may be little or no overlap between their potential future range and their current one. Unless we can help these species, by sustaining existing populations and providing opportunities for them to colonise new areas over long distances of potentially inhospitable terrain they may be at heightened risk of global extinction.