News

Durham team develops landslide prediction warning system

(3 February 2005)

A team of researchers from the International Landslide Centre based in the Geography Department at the University of Durham has made significant advances in understanding and predicting landslides.

At a time when the world may feel increasingly powerless before the ravages of nature, the Durham team has developed a method of accurately predicting exactly when a hillside will reach catastrophic failure.

In the wake of the Asian disaster, which was caused an undersea earthquake, attention is now being given to developing a tsunami early warning system. The Durham experts have been working on a similar system to predict where landslides might happen, and when, backed up by a 24-hour standby disaster response team.

Landslides are one of the most destructive of all natural hazards. On average landslides kill over 8,000 people every year. They occur in all environments, but they are most prevalent in countries affected by heavy rainfall and/or large earthquakes. They inflict huge damage on communities, often with massive loss of life and widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure. These impacts are most severe in less developed countries.

In 2003, Durham’s world-class expertise in Geography led to the formation of the unique International Landslide Centre, which provides advice and relief to people in the danger zones. This lifesaving expertise is currently being deployed in a number of countries in the developing world, and is also being used to mitigate the impact of landslides by advising on the construction and siting of roads in danger areas.

A key aspect of the work is the development of methods to predict where and when a landslide might occur. The Durham researchers measure the movement of the soil, and study soil samples in the laboratory to understand how the landslide materials deform. This has allowed the team to develop a system that allows the future behaviour of the landslide to be predicted. So, for example, when a slope starts to move the team can predict whether it will develop into a catastrophic slides and if so, when this will happen.

Dr David Petley, Reader in Geography, said: “Our research looks at two keys areas for understanding and coping with landslides. One involves the composition of the slopes and the processes and mechanisms that create the conditions for landslides to occur. The other is using that knowledge in trying to detect the problems before the disaster is triggered. We may not be able to prevent landslides, but with advance knowledge we hope we can help to reduce the human casualties.”

The Centre has a team on 24-hour standby to fly out to any country with landslide problems. The team also works with developing countries to try to build up capability to deal with landslides.

In August 2004 the precise moment when a landslide reached catastrophic failure was caught on film by a team from the Japanese Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. Sufficient warning was given and nobody was injured.

Durham team members visited the Japanese landslide site in order to map and measure movement and to soil samples in the laboratory. They designed and built their own “back pressure shear box” to simulate conditions within a landslide. Rainfall is the major cause of landslides not caused by earthquakes and this device gradually increases water pressure within the soil sample and its behaviour is monitored by computer.

Laser scanning is also uses to track across a suspected landslide site to build up an exact image. This is then mapped to produce a detailed 3-D model which is used to detect any subsequent movement by comparing new scans.

Dr. Petley said :”Our work has now reached a very exciting stage because we are now able to predict pretty much exactly when a landslide will happen and how fast it might develop. This can be done in quite a simple way by putting pegs into the slope and measuring any movement. Under certain conditions we can predict exactly when a slope might move, and whether not it will be a rapid and catastrophic failure and or slow movement.”

Durham’s geographers are working around the world, particularly in Taiwan, Nepal and Bhutan. Their associates include geologists and satellite scientists. For example, a NASA project in conjunction with a number of colleagues is establishing whether radar datasets can be used for detecting landslide movements.

The work of the International Landslide Centre is currently being distributed to over 2,000 news organisations worldwide through a leading international press agency. A news item has been compiled by Research-TV which produces video news releases. Each story is tailor made for TV news, timed to fit standard slots and highlight newsworthy issues such as groundbreaking research or new discoveries.

For further information contact : Dr. David Petley, Department of Geography, Science Site, South Road, Durham Tel +44 (0) 191 334 1801 e-mail : geog.dept@durham.ac.uk www.geography.dur.ac.uk

Media contact : Tom Fennelly, Public Relations, University of Durham, Tel +44 (0) 191 334 6078 e-mail : t.p.fennelly@durham.ac.uk

Notes to editors :

The United Kingdom is one of the three major centres of landslide expertise in the world (the others are Italy and the USA). Durham has a skilled team of academics, in its world-class Department of Geography that has consistently received top ratings in the national assessments of university research quality.

Thanks to the generous support of two private donors, both graduates of the University, the University received the necessary funding to establish the International Landslide Centre for an initial period of three years and make it possible to seek project-specific funding from organisations like the Department for International Development, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank.

The aims of the Centre are

To provide a mechanism by which landslide experts (from Durham and other UK universities) can provide rapid, direct assistance during and immediately after major landslide events. Services offered include: assessment of damage and future vulnerability; short term assessments of hazard and risk; remediation strategies; satellite/air photo image acquisition and analysis.

For example, in many major earthquakes landslides block vital transportation corridors. The staff of the centre can provide assistance in reopening these routes with the minimum or risk. Similarly, in many cases the search for people buried by slides is hampered by the risk to the rescuers from subsequent landslides. The Centre team can assist the rapid analysis of such situations.

To assist in institutional strengthening so that local agencies develop greatly enhanced levels of knowledge and experience, and are better prepared for landslide events
To undertake research into landslide mechanisms during large events, and into landslide hazard/risk assessment
To provide training to local landslide practitioners