Publication details for Dr Matthias TroffaesTroffaes, Matthias C. M. (2006). Generalizing The Conjunction Rule for Aggregating Conflicting Expert Opinions. International Journal of Intelligent Systems 21(3): 361-380.
- Publication type: Journal papers: academic
- ISSN/ISBN: 0884-8173, 1098-111X
- DOI: 10.1002/int.20140
- View online: Online version
- Durham research online: DRO record
Author(s) from Durham
Other versions of this publication
- 2003: Uncertainty and Conflict: A Behavioural Approach to the Aggregation of Expert Opinions (older version)
In multiagent expert systems, the conjunction rule is commonly used to combine expert information represented by imprecise probabilities. However, it is well known that this rule cannot be applied in the case of expert conflict. In this article, we propose to resolve expert conflict by means of a second-order imprecise probability model. The essential idea underlying the model is a notion of behavioral trust. We construct a simple linear programming algorithm for calculating the aggregate. This algorithm explains the proposed aggregation method as a generalized conjunction rule. It also provides an elegant operational interpretation of the imprecise second-order assessments, and thus overcomes the problems of interpretation that are so common in hierarchical uncertainty models.