Publication details for Dr Yongqiang ZongHuang, Z., Zong, Y. & Zhang, W. Coastal Inundation due to Sea Level Rise in the Pearl River Delta, China. Natural Hazards. 2004;33:247-264.
- Publication type: Journal papers: academic
- ISSN/ISBN: 0921-030X, 1573-0840
- DOI: 10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000037038.18814.b0
- Keywords: sea-level rise, tidal inundation, flood defences, management implications, Pearl River delta
- View online: Online version
- Durham research online: DRO record
Author(s) from Durham
This paper examines the increased potential risk of tidalinundations in the Pearl River delta, China, due to futurerises in sea level. The research is based on tidal recordsof 54 tide gauges distributed across the delta plain, andemploys mathematical calculations to predict potentialrises of water level in different parts of the delta undera number of flood scenarios. After assessing a 72-yeartidal record of Hong Kong and factors such as estuarinebackwater effects and long-term geological subsidence,it suggests that a 30 cm rise in relative sea level at themouth of the estuary is possible by 2030. Based on theprediction and five freshwater discharge scenarios, thepotential impacts on water levels across the delta plain arecalculated. Three zones are identified as least affected,heavily affected and severely affected. The impacts arealso translated into return periods of water level. It issuggested that in a large part of the delta plain, returnperiods will be shortened and hence will be increasinglyvulnerable to tidal inundation. Finally, managementimplications are discussed along with assessment ofthe adequacy of the existing tidal flood defences, as well asevaluation of the cost implications if they are to be improved.